Over the last year, the generic congressional polls have told a story of the ebb and flow of the electorate. These are the polls in which voters are asked whether, if the election were today, they would vote for the Republican or the Democrat. Last December when the tax cut bill was being debated, the Dems moved to a lead that on average hit the mid teens. That led to the "blue wave" talk in the media. Of course, much of this was because the Dems were lying and telling the public that the tax cut would actually raise taxes for the average person so that the rich and the big corporations would get a big tax break. Once the law passed and people saw the actual effect on their own paychecks, the lie by the Democrats was revealed and the polling started moving towards the GOP. As the economy got better and better, those polls continued moving towards the Republicans. As of a few weeks ago, the Dems lead was in the area of 4 percent.
Suddenly, late last week, the polls moved in a major fashion. We had three or four major polls that showed Democrats back with mid teen leads. It was a surprising move, to say the least. These polls came out together with the new book by Woodward that slams the Trump administration and also with the anonymous NY Times op ed supposedly written by a senior White House official who is working behind the scenes to thwart the Trump agenda. All of this corresponds also to the Kavanaugh hearings. Indeed, it seems to all be part of a coordinated effort to get one Republican senator to break ranks and vote against Kavanaugh as well as to demoralize potential Republican voters in November so that they stay home.
It seems like a crazy conspiracy theory to claims that these polls were intentionally skewed to benefit the Democrats. It seems crazy, that is, until you see what has happened in the few days since then. Four more polls have come out from other respected pollsters. These polls show three that average a Dem lead of 3% and one other (Reuters) that puts the Dem lead at 9%. If there really is a plan out there to create an impression that the Dems are moving ahead, Reuters would likely be a part of it. Reuters, after all, seems to be as far left as MSNBC.
One thing is certain, though. It cannot be that half the polls show a lead of 14% on average while the other half shows a lead of 3%. That does not make sense statistically. Something is wrong.
If it were not for the thoroughly debunked Woodward book and the anonymous op ed in the Times coming simultaneously with these polls, we could just say the polling was an aberration. It seems, though, to be part of a plan.
Maybe the plan was designed by Glenn Simpson at Fusion GPS and paid for by the DNC. It's happened before, so why not again?
Suddenly, late last week, the polls moved in a major fashion. We had three or four major polls that showed Democrats back with mid teen leads. It was a surprising move, to say the least. These polls came out together with the new book by Woodward that slams the Trump administration and also with the anonymous NY Times op ed supposedly written by a senior White House official who is working behind the scenes to thwart the Trump agenda. All of this corresponds also to the Kavanaugh hearings. Indeed, it seems to all be part of a coordinated effort to get one Republican senator to break ranks and vote against Kavanaugh as well as to demoralize potential Republican voters in November so that they stay home.
It seems like a crazy conspiracy theory to claims that these polls were intentionally skewed to benefit the Democrats. It seems crazy, that is, until you see what has happened in the few days since then. Four more polls have come out from other respected pollsters. These polls show three that average a Dem lead of 3% and one other (Reuters) that puts the Dem lead at 9%. If there really is a plan out there to create an impression that the Dems are moving ahead, Reuters would likely be a part of it. Reuters, after all, seems to be as far left as MSNBC.
One thing is certain, though. It cannot be that half the polls show a lead of 14% on average while the other half shows a lead of 3%. That does not make sense statistically. Something is wrong.
If it were not for the thoroughly debunked Woodward book and the anonymous op ed in the Times coming simultaneously with these polls, we could just say the polling was an aberration. It seems, though, to be part of a plan.
Maybe the plan was designed by Glenn Simpson at Fusion GPS and paid for by the DNC. It's happened before, so why not again?
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