After this weeks spectacle in the Senate, it has become clear to many across the country just how important control of the Senate will be for the next two years. Simply put, if the Democrats were to take control, they would block every nominee put forward by President Trump. They tried to do just that for the last two years, but were ultimately thwarted because they were in the minority. Future picks for the Supreme Court (if any) would obviously be major battles. The Dems, however. wouldn't stop there. They filibustered nominees for under secretary of this or that, governor of the Federal Reserve Bank, and all sorts of relatively minor offices. Who knows what they would do next to try to resist Trump? So let's take a look at where the senate races stand. We'll do it one state at a time.
Today we'll cover Missouri because it has the most recent polling which came out after the incumbent Democrat Clair McCaskill announced she would vote no on the Kavanaugh nomination. According to the latest poll of likely voters, the GOP candidate Josh Hawley is leading McCaskill by 2% at 48 to 46 with 6% undecided. There's only 5 weeks left to the election, but McCaskill is making no headway with the voters. In the four public polls taken in September, McCaskill has averaged the support of 45% of the electorate. Hawley has averaged 46.25%. What's most important is not the specific numbers, although the fact that McCaskill has not been ahead in any of these polls is still quite meaningful. No, the key here is that long time senator McCaskill is stuck at 45%. The voters in the state know her well, and 55% of them aren't voting for her. That's a bad place for an incumbent to be at any time, but if it's five weeks before the election, it's a disastrous place to be. Obviously much can happen in five weeks, but right now it looks as if Hawley is the likely winner.
It is true that Hawley has also run and won a state-wide race in Missouri, so the voters know him too. Hawley, however, ran and won as Attorney General, an office which has a low profile. Voters may have heard his name, but they didn't know him well.
It is also true that the Kavanaugh mess could affect this race, although it doesn't seem likely. This latest poll came after McCaskill announced she would vote against the judge, but half before the committee hearings. There doesn't seem to have been much effect; both McCaskill and Hawley moved a bit higher in their numbers (McCaskill beat the average by 1%, Hawley by 1.75%). If there's a delayed reaction, it will show in the next poll. Still, this cannot be a big mover for the race.
The next question will be about turnout on election day. Are the Democrats or Republicans more fired up to get out and vote? The blue wave theorists say that enthusiasm is on the Democrat side, but their evidence is all old. Most recently, there was a special election in a Texas district that Hillary carried by 11% in 2016 and which hadn't elected a Republican in 132 years. The GOP candidate won by more than 10% on a heavy turnout.
The main takeaway from the Missouri race at this point is that it's close but Hawley is leading by a small margin. Normally, as that last portion of the electorate makes up their minds, Hawley's lead should increase. We will see how this develops in the next polls. Unless McCaskill's numbers start rising in a meaningful way, however, she is likely to lose.
Today we'll cover Missouri because it has the most recent polling which came out after the incumbent Democrat Clair McCaskill announced she would vote no on the Kavanaugh nomination. According to the latest poll of likely voters, the GOP candidate Josh Hawley is leading McCaskill by 2% at 48 to 46 with 6% undecided. There's only 5 weeks left to the election, but McCaskill is making no headway with the voters. In the four public polls taken in September, McCaskill has averaged the support of 45% of the electorate. Hawley has averaged 46.25%. What's most important is not the specific numbers, although the fact that McCaskill has not been ahead in any of these polls is still quite meaningful. No, the key here is that long time senator McCaskill is stuck at 45%. The voters in the state know her well, and 55% of them aren't voting for her. That's a bad place for an incumbent to be at any time, but if it's five weeks before the election, it's a disastrous place to be. Obviously much can happen in five weeks, but right now it looks as if Hawley is the likely winner.
It is true that Hawley has also run and won a state-wide race in Missouri, so the voters know him too. Hawley, however, ran and won as Attorney General, an office which has a low profile. Voters may have heard his name, but they didn't know him well.
It is also true that the Kavanaugh mess could affect this race, although it doesn't seem likely. This latest poll came after McCaskill announced she would vote against the judge, but half before the committee hearings. There doesn't seem to have been much effect; both McCaskill and Hawley moved a bit higher in their numbers (McCaskill beat the average by 1%, Hawley by 1.75%). If there's a delayed reaction, it will show in the next poll. Still, this cannot be a big mover for the race.
The next question will be about turnout on election day. Are the Democrats or Republicans more fired up to get out and vote? The blue wave theorists say that enthusiasm is on the Democrat side, but their evidence is all old. Most recently, there was a special election in a Texas district that Hillary carried by 11% in 2016 and which hadn't elected a Republican in 132 years. The GOP candidate won by more than 10% on a heavy turnout.
The main takeaway from the Missouri race at this point is that it's close but Hawley is leading by a small margin. Normally, as that last portion of the electorate makes up their minds, Hawley's lead should increase. We will see how this develops in the next polls. Unless McCaskill's numbers start rising in a meaningful way, however, she is likely to lose.
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