It's been a while since President Trump pulled the USA out of the Iranian nuclear deal (known as the JCPOA). The Europeans and the Russians are still clinging to that pact as the best way to proceed. Various leaders in Europe have even announced plans for a means to avoid the re-imposition of sanctions on the mullahs. That effort isn't going to work, however. Sorry to sound like Game of Thrones, but the important words here are "November is Coming". In November, much stricter sanctions are going to be put in place by the USA under the protocols regarding the JCPOA. There were some US sanctions against Iran that went back into effect as soon as the USA pulled out of that agreement. In November, however, the six month grace period ends and the full sanctions go back into place. At that time, a company that does business in Iran can be barred from access to the American market and the American banking system. Imagine you are a large French multi-national corporation. Your choice becomes doing business with the mullahs or doing business with the USA and having access to the worldwide banking operations of American banks. It's an easy choice to make. There could be some profit in Iran, but there's an existential question if the American market and banking system are shut off. For all the statements made by the Europeans against the move by President Trump, they are going to have to go along with his move.
Russia is a different story. Putin may decide that he will risk the wrath and the sanctions of the USA in order to cement his ties to Teheran. I doubt that, but you never know.
In any event, another strong blow is coming towards the Iranian economy. The first wave of sanctions that began when Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA has nearly swamped Iran's fragile economy. The Iranian currency has collapsed. The protest marches across Iran in recent months have focused mostly on economic issues. A second -- and much stronger blow -- will do great harm to Iran's economy.
President Trump is betting that the sanctions will bring the Iranians back to the table. Despite their constant statements of hatred for the USA, the mullahs are more concerned for keeping their power in Iran. Hopefully, they will recognize that letting the sanctions stay in place undermines their position in a manner that gets worse with the passage of time. We will see soon how this plays out. Remember November Is Coming.
Russia is a different story. Putin may decide that he will risk the wrath and the sanctions of the USA in order to cement his ties to Teheran. I doubt that, but you never know.
In any event, another strong blow is coming towards the Iranian economy. The first wave of sanctions that began when Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA has nearly swamped Iran's fragile economy. The Iranian currency has collapsed. The protest marches across Iran in recent months have focused mostly on economic issues. A second -- and much stronger blow -- will do great harm to Iran's economy.
President Trump is betting that the sanctions will bring the Iranians back to the table. Despite their constant statements of hatred for the USA, the mullahs are more concerned for keeping their power in Iran. Hopefully, they will recognize that letting the sanctions stay in place undermines their position in a manner that gets worse with the passage of time. We will see soon how this plays out. Remember November Is Coming.
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