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Friday, August 6, 2010

The Employment figures

71,000. That is the number of jobs in the private sector created during July. Because the census work is ending, the net change for all jobs was a loss, but the key number is that 71,000. There are different ways to look at this. It was 29,000 less than the 100,000 private sector jobs that economists were predicting would be added. It is not enough to bring down unemployment even if it continues at this rate. And the old standby: it is more than 70,000 and less than 72,000. No matter how we look at it, however, it is not good. This is a further confirmation that the economy is just limping along. The engines of job growth, small businesses, are not hiring or growing. They are frozen in place.

The question is why are small businesses not hiring? Is it a lack of demand? The Obamacrats think so and push for more government spending to goose up the demand numbers. I do not buy that. If we were short of demand, the profit figures for businesses would be falling, a pattern that we have not seen as the earnings season progresses. I vote instead for what I call the deer in the headlights syndrome. Business is traumatized by the onrushing Obamacrat push to regulate or tax everything. Smalll businessmen are usually risking their own money when they begin or expand a business. Obviously, they also borrow, but the main chunk of the investment comes out of their own accounts and any losses will greatly affect them. they cannot go to the stock market and raise funds from unseen investors whose losses are to be avoided but are not fatal. That means that small businessmen need more certainty than a big corporation if they are to invest and grow. The risk of loss is just that much greater for them.

Right now, the economic panorama before small business looks more like a Freddy Kreuger dream than a normal landscape. Taxes are going up in 2011 and the Obamacrats are gleeful that the rich will be targets. Energy costs are going up as the obamacrats use regulation to try to accomplish things that Congress (even one controlled by the Obamacrats) would not pass. Healthcare costs are going through the roof as the full impact of Obamacare starts to sink in. Big businesses are being bailed out at great cost with no security blanket offered for the smaller fish in the sea. Industries are being nationalized here in America; it sounds more like some old documentary on Eastern Europe after World War 2. In short, there is a lot of reason for fear out there.

Probably the best antidote to this whole mess is a Republican victory in November followed by a consistent attempt by the Republicans to stop any more of this from happening and to roll back what they can. What is needed is a steady hand. There has to be some trust that no new disaster will be inflicted on the business community by the Obamacrats. Someone needs to start guiding the economy using principles of economics rather than those of class warfare. Until then, it is unlikely that we will see much improvement in the unemployment figures.

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