Why would anyone be surprised at job losses

The ADP figures released this morning showed a loss of 10,000 jobs in the private sector. While these figures are notoriously inaccurate, they do show trends, and so it is bad news that there were job losses indicated rather than job creation. Indeed, it now seems likely that during Obama's much touted "Recovery Summer" there will be a net decrease in the number of people with jobs in the USA. One shudders to think what would have happened if it were not for that recovery. Seriously, the economy is on the brink of a renewed contraction; it can go either way, but the danger of the double dip recession is great.

What I find strange is the number of people who are surprised by these statistics. Over the last two years, Obama has taken step after step that discourages the creation of new jobs. Higher taxes, more regulations, threats of higher energy prices and bans on off-shore drilling are just a few of the mechanixms that Obama has used to prevent job growth. On top of this is layered the increasing uncertainty of what the government will do next and how damaging it will be to business in the USA. Although Obama talks about job creation, it is clear that he has no idea what leads to such growth in employment. Even his advisers seem stuck with academic theories instead of real world facts. For example, we are told how the stimulus saved or created jobs based upon a calculation that assumes that each dollar in stimulus spending produces growth of $1.50 in the GDP through the multiplier effect, but we see no actual proof that this has happened. Can it be that the predicted multiplier is not at work? Not according to Obama's advisers; their theories tell them that it must be working. It is akin to a doctor who gives a patient medicine that is expected to cure him only to see the patient get worse. A doctor who refuses to change in the face of a bad reality would be following the type of course that Obama and his advisers have chosen.

The truth is that it is time to try something different. Obama, however, seems to have no idea what to do. Nor do his advisers. That is why we get a speech filled with platitudes about the economy like the one he delivered last night. Just think of what could be accomplished if Obama were to call in people like Paul Ryan and actually listen to their ideas. A true embrace of bipartisanship could bring forth new ideas that could work to help the economy. Sadly, the prospects for obama to do what he promised during the campaign are slim at best.