Here's the Reason for the Articles

Over the last week, there have been a number of articles in the main stream media asking this question: "Is it time for Democrats to panic?" Most of the articles talked about the Walker victory in the recall election, the close national polls, the confusion and division within the Democrats regarding their message, and the movement of normally Republican states like North Carolina back towards the GOP. Now, however, there is some really big news that may help push the Democrats towards hysteria. Rasmussen is out this afternoon with a poll of likely voters in Wisconsin and Romney is holding a three point lead over Obama at 47% to 44%.

First, let me say that Romney's lead in this poll is still within the margin of error. Nevertheless, there has been consistent polling in Wisconsin for the last two years which has ALWAYS shown Obama to be ahead. Wisconsin is part of the so-called Blue Wall, those states that have repeatedly voted for the Democrats for 20 years and which were thought to be sure wins for Obama in 2012. Couple this poll with recent results showing Romney also ahead in Michigan and Iowa and the Democrats have to wonder if the upper Midwest is turning against them. Remember, just these three states have 32 electoral votes which is 12% of what is needed to win the election. Further, if these three are going to the GOP, then it is likely that Ohio and Indiana are also on the Romney track. Maybe even Pennsylvania will be in play. This second group of three states has 49 electoral votes or 18% of the total needed to win. Just imagine what this means. Thirty percent of the electoral votes needed to win the election, all of which Obama won in 2008, may be switching to Romney. Throw in North Carolina which is moving sharply towards Romney and it gives him enough to win the election.

Of course, most of this is pure conjecture. Between now and November the polls will swing one way or the other many times. Events around the world may scramble the race in ways we cannot ever guess. Nevertheless, one thing is clear: all those pundits who told us over and over about how Obama could not lose were wrong. Obama can lose. Indeed, right now it appears that Obama would lose. Let's hope things keep going the right direction.