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Sunday, June 24, 2012

Nothing Like Executive Privilege to Shake Things Up

It has been just about a week since president Obama decided to assert Executive Privilege to prevent the disclosure of the documents related to operation Fast and Furious. I believe it is instructive to look at the public reaction since then. For three days prior to Obama's assertion of the privilege, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll of Obama's job approval showed 51% disapprove and 48% approve. After the assertion, there were gyrations in the numbers, but for the last three days they have settled at 54% disapprove and 44% approve, a seven point increase in the margin against Obama. The change in approval tracks with the results of the daily matchup between Obama and Mitt Romney. Rasmussen now shows Romney up by 5%, a lead which has been holding for a few days. For quite some time before that, Romney has been up but by 1 or 2%. In other words, it seems that the verdict is in on the assertion of Executive Privilege. By taking that action, Obama has managed to drive away a few percent of the electorate, and it is a key few percent indeed. No one can say if the shift is permanent; only time will tell. One thing is certain, however, if the shift is indeed permanent, Romney is likely to win in November.

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