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Sunday, June 9, 2013

Salvaging Syria

At the moment, heavy fighting continues in Syria.  On one side, there are the forces of Bashir al Assad and his allies.  These forces include troops sent from Iran in support of its vassal Assad.  They also include major numbers of combatants from the terror group Hezbollah, another dependent of Iran.  The remnants of the Syrian armed forces are also included in the Assad group, although these troops were too weak in the past to hold their own against the other side despite being better armed.  On the rebel side, there are forces mosly comprised of Sunni Moslems who make up three quarters of the Syrian population.  These forces are poorly armed although they now get arms from both Turkey and Saudi Arabia.  The most successful of the rebel forces are comprised of and led by al Nusra, a Syrian affiliate of al Qaeda.  So the Syrian conflict has become one fought in large part between Iran and the Shiite terror groups on one side and al Qaeda affiliates on the other side. 

Since neither side sees the need to avoid civilian casualties, the numbers of people dying are actually rising.  The total dead is fast approaching 100,000 if it has not passed that figure already.  To put that in the context of America, imagine a conflict in the USA where one and one quarter million people were killed and 25 million were homeless refugees.  That is where Syria is today.

All of this could have been avoided had America acted when the war first broke out.  We could have forged ties with the rebels and promoted the moderates into leadership rather than sitting back and watching those tied to al Qaeda take charge.  But that is now just history.  President Obama failed miserably in the past in dealing with Syria, but there are still some things that can be done to improve the outcome for the USA.

The first thing America has to do is to take steps to get rid of the Syrian chemical weapons.  Assad had before the war one of the largest supplies of chemical weapons in the world.  Think about that.  When this war is over, those chemical weapons will be controlled either by al Qaeda or by Iran and its terror groups like Hezbollah.  Does anyone think that is a good outcome?

Last Summer, Obama announced that any use of chemical weapons in Syria would cross a red line for the USA.  Assad used the chemicals a few months back.  French scientists have found chemical traces of sarin gas in the victims of the attack.  There is now no doubt that the chemicals were used.  Obama needs to act.  American forces can be sent to destroy the chemical plants, storage depots and dispersal mechanisms stored across Syria.  We do not need boots on the ground.  We can act through air power.  If the Pentagon is worried that our planes will be shot down, then we can first take out Syrian air defenses.  Then, every storage site for chemicals can be leveled. 

Now some will say that such an action will result in the Syrians hating the USA after the war is over.  Really?  With al Qaeda in control in Damascus, do these folks think Syria will be our friends?  With Iran in control in Damascus, will Syria be our friends?  The truth is that Obama already lost Syria; at least we can take away the weapons held by Syria which could be used to inflict mass casualties.

I doubt that Obama will act at this point.  There is no political payoff  for such a move; it would only be good for the USA not Obama's party.  But remember where this is all going.  If Assad hangs onto power, he will be a slave to the wishes of Iran.  Iran will be only too happy to unleash some of the Syrian chemical weapons on Israel, America and the rest of the West.  From Teheran's viewpoint, these will be Syrian attacks not Iranian ones.  Retaliation will come against Syria, not Iran.  The mullahs in Teheran will not care; after all, most of Syria is Sunni.



 

 

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