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Sunday, June 23, 2013

The Battle Lines Form in Syria

Things in Syria have gotten worse.  (I think that this is about the fiftieth time that I have written that sentence.)  The civil war has now got international forces backing both sides.  No longer are the combatants just the Assad regime and the Sunni majority rebels.  Assad has active backing from his Shiite co-religionists in Iran and Hezbollah as well as logistical support from the Putin regime in Russia.  The rebels who were outgunned at Qaysir are now seeing supplies flow in from the Saudis, Turks, Jordanians and French.  Libyan arms that were "liberated" from the old Gaddafi forces are also arriving daily in Syria for the rebels.  Ever more belligerent language is spewing from the Morsi government in Egypt which has severed diplomatic relations with the Assad regime.  We are watching much of the Middle East take sides in the battle, and the fighting may spread as well.

There are major dangers in all this for the United States.  First of all, dangerous weapons are being given to groups affiliated with terrorists.  The latest reports say that the rebels have acquired anti-tank missiles and shoulder fired anti aircraft weapons.  Think of the havoc that these anti-aircraft missiles could cause if they are turned against civil aviation.  The savage nature of this war will also be made worse by the upgrade to the available weapons.  the 100,000 dead to date may quickly double or triple.  Indeed, when one side or the other prevails, we may see mass slaughter of the losing side.  Second, it may not take much more of a spark for the armies of Turkey or Jordan to enter the fray.  Indeed, if the Assad forces attack again into Turkish refugee camps, Turkey may call upon its NATO allies for support and launch a counter attack.  That could spread the war from Syria into a major regional conflict.

Many Americans currently believe that the national interests of the USA are not involved in this fight.  That is not true.  Our allies such as Turkey, Jordan and even Saudi Arabia could soon be fighting on the front lines.  That will threaten American interests in major ways.  Our ally Israel is just over the border from Syria and is also likely to get sucked into this mess if it does not end soon.

President Obama has done his usual foreign policy maneuver of giving a speech and then doing nothing else.  That plan did not work in the past and it will not work now.  Hiding is not a rational way to approach the foreign policy of the United State.  Washington has to wake up and smell the gunpowder.

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