The corona virus has brought out a great many people who are either totally in panic mode (still) or who want things to look bad for reasons other than dealing responsibly with the pandemic. As a result, we still get daily totals of deaths and cumulative case numbers on a non-stop basis. But that's the wrong way to look at where we are.
Let's start with death statistics. These numbers don't tell us where we are now. The figures for those who have passed away actually tell us where we were in the fight against the virus 3-4 weeks ago. Remember, once a person is infected it takes between 3 and 14 days for symptoms to appear. Then after the symptoms start, the most frequent trajectory for a patient with severe disease is for things to get worse with death hitting about 2 weeks after the start of symptoms. These, of course, are averages. Some people take less time and others more. Still, for the average patient, the time between infection and death is about 3.5 weeks.
There's also the problem of lumpy death statistics. In some states, the reporting of deaths from the virus doesn't actually occur on the date of death. People who die at home or even in nursing homes often don't get counted for days or weeks. Just last week, New York added over 1500 dead to the total because of catching up with nursing home deaths that had been previously missed.
And what about cumulative case numbers? As of today, there have been 1,284,000 people who have tested positive for the virus in the USA. A great many of them have already recovered, however. In looking at policy, the question can't be how many people have had the virus and tested positive. It has to be how many have it now. In other words, how many sources of new contagion are there really.
This leaves us with two figures that make sense to use to evaluate where the fight against the virus is. The first is the number of new cases discovered each day. This gives us a figure of roughly how many people caught the virus about a week ago. After all, except for first responders, medical staff and nursing home residents, nearly everyone tested has symptoms which are the result of an infection at least 3-14 days ago. Testing, though, continues to ramp up across the country. America is now testing people at a rate of over 2.3 million people per week. The rate is still rising rapidly. More tests mean more positive results. This tends to increase the daily number of new cases. Even so, the total number of new cases across the country is falling. Over the last month, the numbers of new cases found each day has fallen from an average of about 33-35,000 to one of about 24-26,000. And this decline has happened even though the number of tests taken each day has tripled. This would indicate that we have reduced the spread of the virus.
A second metric that makes sense to use is the number of people in the hospital due to the virus. These are people who were infected two weeks ago or longer, and they are only those seriously affected. Still, it's pretty clear that the number of hospitalizations is a good indicator of the level of disease overall. Right now, there aren't public figures for the nation as a whole. I can report though that in Connecticut, the total number of people in the hospital due to the virus is the lowest in more than a month. That was also true yesterday and then the number fell lower as more people were released than admitted. Since we were particularly hard hit in CT, this is great news.
So if you look at these figures, what are they showing? First, let's focus on Georgia. That's the state that opened up "early" to much chagrin and screaming in the media about how we would see an explosion of the virus as a result. The opening of much of the state happened over two weeks ago. By now we should be seeing rising numbers of cases if the rapid spread of the virus had returned. There has been no such increase. If anything, levels of new cases are a bit lower than they were two weeks ago.
And how about other problem states. New York is obviously the worst hit of all. In that state, new cases are running between 2000 and 2500 per day. That sounds bad except a month ago the figures were five time higher. Things are much improved in NY.
New Jersey and Massachusetts which are second and third in the numbers of cases have similar trends to NY. The state in fourth place, however, is Illinois. That state is still showing rising numbers of new cases. A month ago, IL was getting 1100 to 1300 new cases per day. Now those figures are running about 3000 per day. IL now has more new cases each day than any other state. Maryland, Indiana and Virginia are also uncovering rising numbers of new cases each day, but the levels in those states are nowhere near as high as in the places hardest hit. Indiana is also up due to the discovery on the spread of the virus among workers in certain food plants.
Overall, the trend across America is a good one. In many states, the levels of new infection are extremely low. If Georgia is a good model for the rest of the states, these other states can reopen rather rapidly. For example, a state like Michigan is now only uncovering one quarter as many cases each day as was the case a month ago even despite a huge increase in testing over that time. The continuing strict lockdown order there seems like total overkill.
Let's start with death statistics. These numbers don't tell us where we are now. The figures for those who have passed away actually tell us where we were in the fight against the virus 3-4 weeks ago. Remember, once a person is infected it takes between 3 and 14 days for symptoms to appear. Then after the symptoms start, the most frequent trajectory for a patient with severe disease is for things to get worse with death hitting about 2 weeks after the start of symptoms. These, of course, are averages. Some people take less time and others more. Still, for the average patient, the time between infection and death is about 3.5 weeks.
There's also the problem of lumpy death statistics. In some states, the reporting of deaths from the virus doesn't actually occur on the date of death. People who die at home or even in nursing homes often don't get counted for days or weeks. Just last week, New York added over 1500 dead to the total because of catching up with nursing home deaths that had been previously missed.
And what about cumulative case numbers? As of today, there have been 1,284,000 people who have tested positive for the virus in the USA. A great many of them have already recovered, however. In looking at policy, the question can't be how many people have had the virus and tested positive. It has to be how many have it now. In other words, how many sources of new contagion are there really.
This leaves us with two figures that make sense to use to evaluate where the fight against the virus is. The first is the number of new cases discovered each day. This gives us a figure of roughly how many people caught the virus about a week ago. After all, except for first responders, medical staff and nursing home residents, nearly everyone tested has symptoms which are the result of an infection at least 3-14 days ago. Testing, though, continues to ramp up across the country. America is now testing people at a rate of over 2.3 million people per week. The rate is still rising rapidly. More tests mean more positive results. This tends to increase the daily number of new cases. Even so, the total number of new cases across the country is falling. Over the last month, the numbers of new cases found each day has fallen from an average of about 33-35,000 to one of about 24-26,000. And this decline has happened even though the number of tests taken each day has tripled. This would indicate that we have reduced the spread of the virus.
A second metric that makes sense to use is the number of people in the hospital due to the virus. These are people who were infected two weeks ago or longer, and they are only those seriously affected. Still, it's pretty clear that the number of hospitalizations is a good indicator of the level of disease overall. Right now, there aren't public figures for the nation as a whole. I can report though that in Connecticut, the total number of people in the hospital due to the virus is the lowest in more than a month. That was also true yesterday and then the number fell lower as more people were released than admitted. Since we were particularly hard hit in CT, this is great news.
So if you look at these figures, what are they showing? First, let's focus on Georgia. That's the state that opened up "early" to much chagrin and screaming in the media about how we would see an explosion of the virus as a result. The opening of much of the state happened over two weeks ago. By now we should be seeing rising numbers of cases if the rapid spread of the virus had returned. There has been no such increase. If anything, levels of new cases are a bit lower than they were two weeks ago.
And how about other problem states. New York is obviously the worst hit of all. In that state, new cases are running between 2000 and 2500 per day. That sounds bad except a month ago the figures were five time higher. Things are much improved in NY.
New Jersey and Massachusetts which are second and third in the numbers of cases have similar trends to NY. The state in fourth place, however, is Illinois. That state is still showing rising numbers of new cases. A month ago, IL was getting 1100 to 1300 new cases per day. Now those figures are running about 3000 per day. IL now has more new cases each day than any other state. Maryland, Indiana and Virginia are also uncovering rising numbers of new cases each day, but the levels in those states are nowhere near as high as in the places hardest hit. Indiana is also up due to the discovery on the spread of the virus among workers in certain food plants.
Overall, the trend across America is a good one. In many states, the levels of new infection are extremely low. If Georgia is a good model for the rest of the states, these other states can reopen rather rapidly. For example, a state like Michigan is now only uncovering one quarter as many cases each day as was the case a month ago even despite a huge increase in testing over that time. The continuing strict lockdown order there seems like total overkill.
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