It's possible that the arguments about reopening the country have reached maximum ghoulishness, but I seriously doubt it. As I write this, it has now become common practice to charge that anyone who wants to reopen the economy is in favor of death. And it's not just death that these people favor; it's death for the poor and infirm and, of course, for minorities and women. Instead of there being a rational discussion about what makes the most sense for our country moving forward, those who want to stay closed just charge their opponents with being heartless monsters. The media, of course, then amplifies these charges no matter what the truth is.
I came to write this post because earlier this afternoon, the head of public health in Los Angeles County, CA, said that the lockdown there will last at least another three months. To do otherwise, the public was told, would lead to huge numbers of dead. This is not just another Democrat crazy throwing silly charges at President Trump (like those who say he only wants to reopen the country because his hotels are losing money.) This is a supposedly responsible local health official who, without knowing what the next three months will bring, is already determining that the economy has to stay shut or massive death will follow. With all due respect to this official (and it doesn't seem much respect is due), there's no reliable evidence on which to base that conclusion.
Much of the dispute about reopening is just political jousting. Some in the media and on the left want to keep the country shut down so that the resulting depression will force President Trump from office. It may seem hard to believe that American would want to inflict an unnecessary depression on the country just to hurt President Trump, but there is really no other possible conclusion that one can draw. In fact, when you see the different reactions from Democrat governors (who will be held responsible for their actions) and Democrats in the House and Senate (who hope to skate by shifting all blame to Trump), you can see the politics in action. The governors are much more favorable towards reopening than the congressional Democrats.
But let's treat this dispute as if politics were not involved. Some folks argue that if we reopen "too soon", there will be a resurgence of the virus with resulting huge numbers of dead. If you ask these same people what constitutes opening "too soon", most of them say only that we are not there yet. They don't offer a goal which, if reached, justifies reopening.
The problem here is that all these people have to go on are models. And remember that models are nothing more than a computer taking the assumptions that get fed into them and applying them to populations. There's an old computer adage that's particularly appropriate here: garbage in, garbage out. In other words, if one inputs bad data or bad programming into a computer, the results that the machine spits out will be meaningless. So we have to look at the assumptions that the modelers are putting into their computer models. The most important assumption is that if the level of human contact increases, there will be a major upsurge in transmission of the virus. But is that true? After all, it's just someone's assumption.
Thus far, there has been no surge in cases as the country has begun to reopen. Of course, if you watch CNN or MSNBC, you don't know that. On those networks, the pandemic is always getting worse. Even if it gets better, they report it getting worse. More than half of the states have taken initial steps towards reopening. In many states, restaurants are open, albeit with reduced seating. Some states have reopened service firms like barber shops and hair salons. Each state has its own rules. For the most part, these reopenings have been under way since about the first of May. In some places, like Georgia, they began almost a week earlier. If these steps towards reopening were causing increased transmission of the virus, the number of new cases would already be rising. This is particularly true since the number of daily tests for the virus has nearly doubled in just the last two weeks. More tests mean more new cases even if the level of infection is not rising.
So what has happened? There has been NO INCREASE in new cases across the USA despite the big rise in testing. In fact, there has been a decrease. The day before yesterday saw the smallest number of newly diagnosed cases in about six weeks. Then, yesterday the number of new cases went down futher. If the reopening of the various states was really causing a rush of new transmissions of the virus, then instead of going down, the figures should be rising in dramatic fashion by now. They're not, and that should tell us that reopening is not the calamity that some claim it to be.
Obviously, we are still early in the reopening process. Things could change and we could see some rise in new cases. That would require an adjustment to the reopening process. One thing is certain, though. Reopening is not thus far causing any indication that there will be increased numbers of deaths.
I came to write this post because earlier this afternoon, the head of public health in Los Angeles County, CA, said that the lockdown there will last at least another three months. To do otherwise, the public was told, would lead to huge numbers of dead. This is not just another Democrat crazy throwing silly charges at President Trump (like those who say he only wants to reopen the country because his hotels are losing money.) This is a supposedly responsible local health official who, without knowing what the next three months will bring, is already determining that the economy has to stay shut or massive death will follow. With all due respect to this official (and it doesn't seem much respect is due), there's no reliable evidence on which to base that conclusion.
Much of the dispute about reopening is just political jousting. Some in the media and on the left want to keep the country shut down so that the resulting depression will force President Trump from office. It may seem hard to believe that American would want to inflict an unnecessary depression on the country just to hurt President Trump, but there is really no other possible conclusion that one can draw. In fact, when you see the different reactions from Democrat governors (who will be held responsible for their actions) and Democrats in the House and Senate (who hope to skate by shifting all blame to Trump), you can see the politics in action. The governors are much more favorable towards reopening than the congressional Democrats.
But let's treat this dispute as if politics were not involved. Some folks argue that if we reopen "too soon", there will be a resurgence of the virus with resulting huge numbers of dead. If you ask these same people what constitutes opening "too soon", most of them say only that we are not there yet. They don't offer a goal which, if reached, justifies reopening.
The problem here is that all these people have to go on are models. And remember that models are nothing more than a computer taking the assumptions that get fed into them and applying them to populations. There's an old computer adage that's particularly appropriate here: garbage in, garbage out. In other words, if one inputs bad data or bad programming into a computer, the results that the machine spits out will be meaningless. So we have to look at the assumptions that the modelers are putting into their computer models. The most important assumption is that if the level of human contact increases, there will be a major upsurge in transmission of the virus. But is that true? After all, it's just someone's assumption.
Thus far, there has been no surge in cases as the country has begun to reopen. Of course, if you watch CNN or MSNBC, you don't know that. On those networks, the pandemic is always getting worse. Even if it gets better, they report it getting worse. More than half of the states have taken initial steps towards reopening. In many states, restaurants are open, albeit with reduced seating. Some states have reopened service firms like barber shops and hair salons. Each state has its own rules. For the most part, these reopenings have been under way since about the first of May. In some places, like Georgia, they began almost a week earlier. If these steps towards reopening were causing increased transmission of the virus, the number of new cases would already be rising. This is particularly true since the number of daily tests for the virus has nearly doubled in just the last two weeks. More tests mean more new cases even if the level of infection is not rising.
So what has happened? There has been NO INCREASE in new cases across the USA despite the big rise in testing. In fact, there has been a decrease. The day before yesterday saw the smallest number of newly diagnosed cases in about six weeks. Then, yesterday the number of new cases went down futher. If the reopening of the various states was really causing a rush of new transmissions of the virus, then instead of going down, the figures should be rising in dramatic fashion by now. They're not, and that should tell us that reopening is not the calamity that some claim it to be.
Obviously, we are still early in the reopening process. Things could change and we could see some rise in new cases. That would require an adjustment to the reopening process. One thing is certain, though. Reopening is not thus far causing any indication that there will be increased numbers of deaths.
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