Here's an intriguing question: Did the nationwide shutdown of the economy stop the virus or just the economy? It's not a simple question.
Roughly half of all the deaths from the virus have been in the New York City metro area. This includes not only portions of NY but also northern NJ and Fairfield County in CT. Across the rest of the nation, the vast bulk of deaths have come in nursing homes. In suburban Philadelphia, for example, Montgomery County says that 85% of all deaths have been in nursing homes. I mention this county because it has the second highest number of deaths in PA (after Philadelphia) and is often described as the epicenter of the virus in PA. Other states have reported similar numbers. So we have a NYC/nursing home epidemic.
From early on in the pandemic attack, visitors were barred from entering nursing homes and other long term care facilities across the country. Then we had the shutdown. Even so, the virus spread into these homes with a devastating impact on the residents. In the New York region, the virus spread even during the shutdown. Antibody tests in NYC indicate that perhaps as many as a quarter of city residents have had the disease. These two facts would seem to indicate that the shut down hasn't really worked.
So we come back to the basic question: did the shutdown stop the virus. Consider a state like Colorado. It has a major metro area in and around Denver and it got hit early by cases of the virus. The spread of the virus, however, seems to hit a plateau. Colorado has had an infection rate according to test results (RNA not antibody testing) of 0.3% compared to NY with 1.8%. There have been just over 800 deaths with the majority in nursing homes.
What would have happened had the nation's response been targeted towards keeping the virus out of nursing homes and away from other vulnerable populations? The economy would not be in shambles. Would the number of dead be higher? The truth is that we don't know the actual answer. We know that the scientists all said that the death numbers would have been substantially higher. What we don't know yet is whether they were right or not.
Roughly half of all the deaths from the virus have been in the New York City metro area. This includes not only portions of NY but also northern NJ and Fairfield County in CT. Across the rest of the nation, the vast bulk of deaths have come in nursing homes. In suburban Philadelphia, for example, Montgomery County says that 85% of all deaths have been in nursing homes. I mention this county because it has the second highest number of deaths in PA (after Philadelphia) and is often described as the epicenter of the virus in PA. Other states have reported similar numbers. So we have a NYC/nursing home epidemic.
From early on in the pandemic attack, visitors were barred from entering nursing homes and other long term care facilities across the country. Then we had the shutdown. Even so, the virus spread into these homes with a devastating impact on the residents. In the New York region, the virus spread even during the shutdown. Antibody tests in NYC indicate that perhaps as many as a quarter of city residents have had the disease. These two facts would seem to indicate that the shut down hasn't really worked.
So we come back to the basic question: did the shutdown stop the virus. Consider a state like Colorado. It has a major metro area in and around Denver and it got hit early by cases of the virus. The spread of the virus, however, seems to hit a plateau. Colorado has had an infection rate according to test results (RNA not antibody testing) of 0.3% compared to NY with 1.8%. There have been just over 800 deaths with the majority in nursing homes.
What would have happened had the nation's response been targeted towards keeping the virus out of nursing homes and away from other vulnerable populations? The economy would not be in shambles. Would the number of dead be higher? The truth is that we don't know the actual answer. We know that the scientists all said that the death numbers would have been substantially higher. What we don't know yet is whether they were right or not.
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