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Wednesday, May 6, 2020

The Failure of Social Distancing To End The Outbreak

NY Governor Cuomo, in his daily soliloquoy said today that after careful tracing of new patients who are testing positive for the virus, roughly 85% who have gotten sick were staying home in self isolation.

Think about that for a moment.  85% of the people getting sick were at staying at home.  They weren't going to work.  They weren't going to the beach.  They were HOME. 

That raises a very another important question:  HOW THE HELL DID THESE PEOPLE GET SICK IF THEY WERE STAYING HOME???????

There are some rather obvious answers, and some or all of them may be correct.  Here are some of the most obvious:

1.  The people were not telling the truth.  They really weren't staying isolated at home.

2.  The people had gone to the supermarket or on some other "essential errand" an caught the virus while there.

3.  The people had gotten deliveries and the packages had brought the virus into their homes.

4.  Someone else in the household had been outside and caught the virus elsewhere and brought it home.

5.  Social distancing doesn't work to prevent the spread of the virus.  One way or another, the virus gets into people's homes and then those people catch it.

My vote for the most correct answer is number 5, social distancing does not work to stop the spread of the virus.  After all, we have antibody test results that tell us that huge percentage of the people in New York City show evidence of prior infection from this virus.  How did more than 20% of the people get infected since such a big number of folks are social distancing (if that works)?  It seems rather obvious that the masks, gloves, and other protective attire as well as keeping one's distance from others just isn't enough to stop the virus from spreading. 

So what does all this mean?  Remember, we have been social distancing so as to keep the hospital system from being overwhelmed.  We were flattening the curve, not preventing further infections.  If social distancing hasn't been preventing the spread, however, then there is no point to continuing it.  Why keep the economy shut down and people at home if everyone is still getting sick?  Sure, some people must have been protected by staying in isolation at home, but for the general public, there is no need for this to continue.  The virus will spread anyway.  It should be enough for those at high risk of severe consequences from the virus to stay isolated while the rest of the population gets back to normal.  That doesn't mean everyone has to cram together in bars or theaters or elsewhere.  Normal commerce, however, ought to resume so that the terrible damage being done by the shutdown can be brought to an end.

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