There's a rather strange bit of information running through the polls for this years elections. Let's start by stating that the polls at this stage of the contest, especially in the middle of the pandemic, don't mean all that much. Still, the average of recent polls kept by RealClearPolitics shows Biden leading Trump by 4.4%. One needs, however, to look further. The election is won by just the national popular vote; just ask Hillary Clinton if you don't believe me. November is a choice in each of 50 states and the District of Columbia. That's where things get somewhat strange.
There have been some recent polls in states that are heavily Democrat. These include California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut. These are states that favor Democrats by so much that were Trump to win any of them in November, it would mean a defeat of historic proportions nationwide for Biden. Still, the key is that the polling taken in the last ten days in these five states show an average lead for Biden of 30%. These same five states also contain about 24% of the national population. The huge lead for the Democrat in these states translates into a national bulge of 7%. In other words, the lead is so large for the Democrats in these five states that it means Trump is ahead by about 4% in the rest of the states. And there are no big states where Trump has the kind of huge lead that Biden has in the five states noted above. In Texas, the latest poll puts Trump up by 6%. In Ohio, Trump is up by 3 or 4%. Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina are also close. So is Michigan. The only remaining large state, Illinois, has a large Biden lead, although not as big as NY or CA.
There have been some recent polls in states that are heavily Democrat. These include California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut. These are states that favor Democrats by so much that were Trump to win any of them in November, it would mean a defeat of historic proportions nationwide for Biden. Still, the key is that the polling taken in the last ten days in these five states show an average lead for Biden of 30%. These same five states also contain about 24% of the national population. The huge lead for the Democrat in these states translates into a national bulge of 7%. In other words, the lead is so large for the Democrats in these five states that it means Trump is ahead by about 4% in the rest of the states. And there are no big states where Trump has the kind of huge lead that Biden has in the five states noted above. In Texas, the latest poll puts Trump up by 6%. In Ohio, Trump is up by 3 or 4%. Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina are also close. So is Michigan. The only remaining large state, Illinois, has a large Biden lead, although not as big as NY or CA.
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