At the University of Washington, there is a group that have produced the epidemic models that have been most influential in dealing with the virus in the USA. It was the models from this group that led to the original estimate of up to 2.4 million dead if no steps were taken to used social distancing and other mitigation measures to reduce the infection rate. It was also a model from U of WA that estimated that full mitigation would reduce deaths to between 100,000 and 220,000. So the entire nation embarked on social distancing and basic economy and educational shutdown. After that, the model cut the estimate of total dead to 80,000 and then again yo 60,000. There have been continuing updates, but this same group now says over 120,000 deaths as America reopens. They also say 3000 dead per day in the next two months.
At this point, there is a simple question that has to be answered: why are we still paying any attention to a model which has been wrong repeatedly? Remember, without a doubt, the model was wrong. The people who issued the model told us that with the very best effort towards social distancing, the best outcome would be only 100,000 dead. Within a few weeks they kept lowering the number. They said it was because America was doing really well with social distancing, but they had already given us the best case scenario as to what could be accomplished with social distancing. The model was wrong.
Supposedly, the big rise in death is due to reopening leading to a spike in cases. But who knows if there will be such a spike. Certainly the folks at the U of WA don't know this. Right now, we have a dramatic drop in numbers of new cases. The number of new cases per day in the USA has dropped by more than one-third over the last four days. The numbers yesterday were the lowest in five weeks. All this is happening as the numbers of tests have ramped up to a level about 50% higher than was the case just two weeks ago. More tests mean more slightly symptomatic or even asymptomatic cases being uncovered. So even with the much higher testing level that should cause a higher number of new cases being discovered, the number of new cases has plummeted. Remember, the first states began opening up again on April 25. If that were causing a spike in new cases, we would see it reflected in the total case numbers. By now, many states have reopened more activities. If this is causing a spike in infections, we should see the total number of new cases soar by the end of this week. This actual data will be a much better source of information than some model that has failed repeatedly.
It's time for the media to stop reporting on the faulty models. Let's rely on actual data instead of the assumptions made by some people who haven't been close to correct so far.
At this point, there is a simple question that has to be answered: why are we still paying any attention to a model which has been wrong repeatedly? Remember, without a doubt, the model was wrong. The people who issued the model told us that with the very best effort towards social distancing, the best outcome would be only 100,000 dead. Within a few weeks they kept lowering the number. They said it was because America was doing really well with social distancing, but they had already given us the best case scenario as to what could be accomplished with social distancing. The model was wrong.
Supposedly, the big rise in death is due to reopening leading to a spike in cases. But who knows if there will be such a spike. Certainly the folks at the U of WA don't know this. Right now, we have a dramatic drop in numbers of new cases. The number of new cases per day in the USA has dropped by more than one-third over the last four days. The numbers yesterday were the lowest in five weeks. All this is happening as the numbers of tests have ramped up to a level about 50% higher than was the case just two weeks ago. More tests mean more slightly symptomatic or even asymptomatic cases being uncovered. So even with the much higher testing level that should cause a higher number of new cases being discovered, the number of new cases has plummeted. Remember, the first states began opening up again on April 25. If that were causing a spike in new cases, we would see it reflected in the total case numbers. By now, many states have reopened more activities. If this is causing a spike in infections, we should see the total number of new cases soar by the end of this week. This actual data will be a much better source of information than some model that has failed repeatedly.
It's time for the media to stop reporting on the faulty models. Let's rely on actual data instead of the assumptions made by some people who haven't been close to correct so far.
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