The Syrian Civil War

It is time to start calling the fighting in Syria a civil war. Simply put, any chance for the UN mission to end the killing of civilians by the Assad forces has ended and the confrontation has morphed into a civil war. Although most of the media ignored the events on the ground during the last few days and focused on the "efforts" to "restore" the cease-fire, there was a major change in posture across Syria. The protesters, rebels, freedom fighters or whatever you want to call them warned the Assad regime last week that unless Assad pulled his forces back to their bases and stopped the killing, they would consider the cease fire arranged by Kofi Annan to be dead and would respond accordingly. Assad, of course, did nothing to stop the killing, but instead made a speech blaming the deaths on terror groups. As a result, yesterday there were attacks against Assad forces across Syria and current estimates say that over 80 soldiers were killed. These are the first coordinated attacks on Assad forces ever. In the past, there have only been defensive moves and occasional hit and run bombings against the Assad forces.

These attacks are a big event. They show that the anti-Assad forces now have the capability to inflict major losses on the pro-Assad side. Indeed, were these attacks to continue for a few weeks at this pace, the Assad forces may crumble.

If you doubt that this is true, consider for a moment the following headline from Reuters: "Russia, China increase push to end Syria violence". The Assad foreign minister has flown to Moscow to discuss moves toward peace with the Putin government. That's right. Russia, which has for months prevented any coordinated effort by the United Nations to stop the fighting and which blocked sanction and military responses, is now moving to the center of peace "discussions". What this means is that the Russians now recognize that their client Bashir al Assad and his government are losing the battle against the opposition. The Russians want to establish a peace plan that keeps Assad in power. China, which has been less involved but which has echoed the Russian position, is also moving towards "peace" now that Assad is truly threatened.

It is too late. Russia can control what the UN Security Council may do, but it cannot control what happens on the ground in Syria. Nor can Russia prevent Turkey and the Saudis from arming the rebels. It looks like the death toll in Syria will be going up rather than down.