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Sunday, April 23, 2017

We Will Soon See If the French Polls Are Any Better Than Ours

The exit polls in France are showing that the winners of the presidential election are Macron and LePen.  This lines up with the pre-election polls as well.  Of course, since the polling places have not even closed yet, this is far from a perfect analysis of the results.  Still, the media is heralding the "fact" that these two will be in a runoff election in two weeks, with the winner becoming president.

It's worth remembering that prior to the Brexit vote, the polls showed Remain would win by a few percent.  The exit polls then showed that it would be very close.  The actual results had the Leave people outpolling the other side comfortably.  In the USA, the polls prior to election day showed Hillary Clinton would win easily.  The exit polls still showed Clinton ahead.  The actual results gave Trump and easy win in the electoral college.

It won't be long now to see if the French polling is any better than that here in the USA.  Are there many people voting for LePen who would not admit that to the pollsters?  How about those voting for Melanchon; did they too vote but refuse to tell?  The exit polls are interesting, but it is only the real results that will matter.  We should learn those by this evening.

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