Iran launched a military "message" for Israel yesterday afternoon. At that time, Iranian forces (not Syrians) launched a mid range ground to ground missile from Syria towards an Israeli city. The Israeli Iron Dome system shot down the missile and no one was hurt. The explosion, however, was visible from the ski slopes of Mt. Hermon on the Golan Heights.
The missile launched by the Iranians was unusual in two respects. First, the crew that did the launch consisted of Iranian soldiers, not Syrian or Hezbollah troops. The assumption is that this staffing for the launch was meant to make clear to Israel that Iran was confronting them rather than trying to hide in the background. Second, the missile used by the Iranians was of a type that requires a long period prior to launch to prepare. Even a quick set up of such a missile would take 10-12 hours according to military experts. That means that this was not a spur of the moment move by Iran. It must have been approved at the highest levels.
The second point is important because Iran justified the launch on the basis of Israel's forcing an Iranian plane not to land at the Damascus airport that had happened about a half hour prior to the Iranian launch. Clearly, the Iranians were waiting for some action by Israel that they could use as an excuse for the missiles firing. The Iranian plane was on a flight from Teheran and was reported to be carrying arms for the Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Syria. The Israelis warned the Russians about 20 minutes before the plane was scheduled to land that it had better turn back to Teheran or it would be shot down. The Russians told the Syrians and Iranians and the plane turned back.
After the Iranians launched a missile attack on Israel, the Israelis responded. Again, it was a different sort of response. First, the Israelis told the Syrians through the Russians that the response was coming and told the Syrians not to turn on the anti-aircraft radars or missile systems. The Israeli air force then attacked and destroyed four or five Iranian/Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in Southern Syria. The Syrians, however, did turn on their radars and began tracking the Israeli jets. As a result, Israel attacked the anti-aircraft facilities and took out something like a dozen of them.
So what does this all mean? Clearly, the Israelis are still trying to dissuade the Iranians from digging in in Syria anywhere near to Israel. Clearly, the Iranians are trying to make clear to Israel that Iran will not be deterred from doing just that. The Syrians under Assad remain unable to deal with the Israeli air force and they just lost something like a quarter of their air defense systems as a result. The Russians continue to play a very important role in the whole exchange. Beyond that, it also means that in the longer term the fight between Israel and Iran in Syria will continue and likely will get bigger. If the Iranians ever get one of their missile through into Israeli territory and harm civilians, the response is likely to be amazingly fierce. The likelihood of Israel jumping over Syria and attacking Iran itself is also something that could happen. The Saudis would no doubt be happy to provide the Israelis with staging areas for any future raids on Iran by the Israelis. In short, none of this looks good for regional peace.
The missile launched by the Iranians was unusual in two respects. First, the crew that did the launch consisted of Iranian soldiers, not Syrian or Hezbollah troops. The assumption is that this staffing for the launch was meant to make clear to Israel that Iran was confronting them rather than trying to hide in the background. Second, the missile used by the Iranians was of a type that requires a long period prior to launch to prepare. Even a quick set up of such a missile would take 10-12 hours according to military experts. That means that this was not a spur of the moment move by Iran. It must have been approved at the highest levels.
The second point is important because Iran justified the launch on the basis of Israel's forcing an Iranian plane not to land at the Damascus airport that had happened about a half hour prior to the Iranian launch. Clearly, the Iranians were waiting for some action by Israel that they could use as an excuse for the missiles firing. The Iranian plane was on a flight from Teheran and was reported to be carrying arms for the Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Syria. The Israelis warned the Russians about 20 minutes before the plane was scheduled to land that it had better turn back to Teheran or it would be shot down. The Russians told the Syrians and Iranians and the plane turned back.
After the Iranians launched a missile attack on Israel, the Israelis responded. Again, it was a different sort of response. First, the Israelis told the Syrians through the Russians that the response was coming and told the Syrians not to turn on the anti-aircraft radars or missile systems. The Israeli air force then attacked and destroyed four or five Iranian/Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in Southern Syria. The Syrians, however, did turn on their radars and began tracking the Israeli jets. As a result, Israel attacked the anti-aircraft facilities and took out something like a dozen of them.
So what does this all mean? Clearly, the Israelis are still trying to dissuade the Iranians from digging in in Syria anywhere near to Israel. Clearly, the Iranians are trying to make clear to Israel that Iran will not be deterred from doing just that. The Syrians under Assad remain unable to deal with the Israeli air force and they just lost something like a quarter of their air defense systems as a result. The Russians continue to play a very important role in the whole exchange. Beyond that, it also means that in the longer term the fight between Israel and Iran in Syria will continue and likely will get bigger. If the Iranians ever get one of their missile through into Israeli territory and harm civilians, the response is likely to be amazingly fierce. The likelihood of Israel jumping over Syria and attacking Iran itself is also something that could happen. The Saudis would no doubt be happy to provide the Israelis with staging areas for any future raids on Iran by the Israelis. In short, none of this looks good for regional peace.
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