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Thursday, February 21, 2019

The Caracas Clique

Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro has quite a group of supporters.  In the last week, the main ones got together at an event in New York at the UN.  They denounced the "imminent American military invasion" of Venezuela.  Apparently, they know something that the rest of us don't.  At least that's the claim.  It worth listing the countries who are supporting this claim of American intervention, particularly since the only action undertaken by the US military with regard to Venezuela has been to fly food and other relief supplies intended for Venezuela to a town in Colombia on the border with Venezuela.  The countries endorsing the phony claim that the USA is undertaking a military intervention include Russia, China, Cuba, Bolivia, the Palestinian Authority, North Korea and Nicaragua.  What a group of peace loving nations!

The pro Caracas clique is an assortment of the usual anti-American countries.  The one surprise to me is the presence of the Palestinian Authority in this group.  Right now, president Abbas of the PA is living in fear of the soon-to-be-released American peace plan.  He has already rejected the US plan even though it hasn't been presented to him.  Since the USA moved its embassy to Jerusalem and said that it does not support the right of return (which is the Palestinian code word for the destruction of Israel as a Jewish state), Abbas doesn't care what the rest of the plan says.  Basically, he has adopted the traditional Palestinian position that they have to get everything they want and even then, they may reject it.  In the past, this has just led to missed chances.  As the late Israeli foreign minister Abba Eban famously said, "the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity."  Now, however, that position is unlikely to be successful.  The Israelis and the Sunni Arab nations in the region are coalescing into an alliance to confront Iran and its attempt at regional dominance.  The idea that Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Gulf States would act in concert with Israel means that a new day has dawned in the region.  If the Palestinians rely solely on Iranian help and funding, they may see their position deteriorate and then collapse.  The largely Sunni Palestinian population will not look kindly on having its main backer be the totally anti-Sunni Iranian regime.  The Palestinians have seen the Shiite Assad regime in Syria slaughtering hundreds of thousands of Sunnis in Syria.  They cannot hold too many illusions as to what their fate would be should the Iranians actually come to rule the region.

Another strange portion of the Caracas clique consists of the North Koreans and the Chinese.  Both countries are engaged in high stakes negotiations with the USA and President Trump.  Does President Xi of China or Kim Il Jung of North Korea actually want to risk failure of the ongoing negotiations should President Trump decide to make moves to punish them for their support for the phony attack on the USA by Maduro?  China's economy is in dangerous territory due to the ongoing trade war with the USA.  Were the negotiations to blow up, it would be bad for America, but it would be a disaster for China.

Russia and Cuba, of course, are not surprising supporters of Maduro.  Both countries have major investments in Venezuela, investments that will be wiped away once Maduro is ousted by the Venezuelan people.  

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