After the elections tomorrow, the Republican party is likely to control the House of Representatives, the Senate, a majority of the governors, and a large majority of state legislative bodies. In other words, except for the presidency, every sort of major political office will have Republicans in control. This fact is important to remember when you read the post election analyses from the pundits or hear the talking heads give their deep thoughts on TV about the "meaning" of the election. The truth is that these people are often wrong, sometimes very, very wrong. Remember the days after president Obama won election in 2008? The standard analysis, indeed the accepted wisdom of the next six months was that the electorate had moved permanently towards the Democrats. Pundit after pundit told us that demographic trends had given Democrats an advantage which would only grow over time, so that the Republicans would become just a small regional (Southern) opposition party. We were all instructed that 2008 was for all intents and purposes the end of the GOP.
So how could the pundits have been so wrong? There are some who still cling to the position that demographics doom the Republicans; these are the ones who refuse to recognize reality. Others see aberrational events controlling current election trends; bad economic or foreign events have temporarily overtaken the basic truths of demographics in their view. For me, this group is the rough equivalent of the global warming crowd that explains the nearly two decade halt in warming as the result of some unnamed transient factor; they "know" the truth, even though they realize that the facts are different.
The real key to understanding the election results is to realize that voting turns for the most part on two things: (1) the conditions of the moment that push voters one way or the other, and (2) major events that push voters almost permanently into one party or the other. An example of the first category is president Obama's being the first black presidential candidate in 2008. Obama carried nearly every African American vote across the country and gained many votes from whites for that reason. In 2016, however, when Obama is no longer on the ballot, will African Americans still vote as a monolith for the Democrats? The likely answer is that they will still provide a huge majority to the Democrats, but the size of that majority as well as the size of the turnout of such voters will be reduced. An example of the second category is the demise of the Soviet Union and America's victory in the Cold War. That happened when president Reagan changed the nature of America's position in the Cold War from containment to confrontation with the Soviets. It happened also with Reagan and Republicans actively battling opposition from Democrats who called Reagan a war-monger and did everything they could to stop or hamper the adoption of the new position. When the Soviets collapsed, it was a world-changing event that proved that the Reagan policy was the correct one. That Soviet collapse also gave the Republicans an edge that they still hold today in public perception as to which party is better dealing with international crises.
The truth is that we do not know today what conditions will be like in 2016, so there is no way to tell which way the electorate will move. For all we know, the Republicans will nominate the first Hispanic candidate for national office (like Rubio, Cruz or Martinez) and that will swing huge numbers of votes from the Democrats to the GOP. Maybe the Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton and that will swing women towards the "first woman president". If the economy heads south in the next two years, voters most likely will blame Obama and the Democrats even if the GOP controls the Congress, but who knows. If ISIS and the other terrorist groups continue to prosper while America does little, voters may seek to get rid of the incompetents from the Democrats that are now guiding our policies.
So keep this all in mind tomorrow night when you hear about the analysis of the results and in the days and weeks that follow. The people providing the analysis really don't know what the future will bring. They are just guessing.
So how could the pundits have been so wrong? There are some who still cling to the position that demographics doom the Republicans; these are the ones who refuse to recognize reality. Others see aberrational events controlling current election trends; bad economic or foreign events have temporarily overtaken the basic truths of demographics in their view. For me, this group is the rough equivalent of the global warming crowd that explains the nearly two decade halt in warming as the result of some unnamed transient factor; they "know" the truth, even though they realize that the facts are different.
The real key to understanding the election results is to realize that voting turns for the most part on two things: (1) the conditions of the moment that push voters one way or the other, and (2) major events that push voters almost permanently into one party or the other. An example of the first category is president Obama's being the first black presidential candidate in 2008. Obama carried nearly every African American vote across the country and gained many votes from whites for that reason. In 2016, however, when Obama is no longer on the ballot, will African Americans still vote as a monolith for the Democrats? The likely answer is that they will still provide a huge majority to the Democrats, but the size of that majority as well as the size of the turnout of such voters will be reduced. An example of the second category is the demise of the Soviet Union and America's victory in the Cold War. That happened when president Reagan changed the nature of America's position in the Cold War from containment to confrontation with the Soviets. It happened also with Reagan and Republicans actively battling opposition from Democrats who called Reagan a war-monger and did everything they could to stop or hamper the adoption of the new position. When the Soviets collapsed, it was a world-changing event that proved that the Reagan policy was the correct one. That Soviet collapse also gave the Republicans an edge that they still hold today in public perception as to which party is better dealing with international crises.
The truth is that we do not know today what conditions will be like in 2016, so there is no way to tell which way the electorate will move. For all we know, the Republicans will nominate the first Hispanic candidate for national office (like Rubio, Cruz or Martinez) and that will swing huge numbers of votes from the Democrats to the GOP. Maybe the Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton and that will swing women towards the "first woman president". If the economy heads south in the next two years, voters most likely will blame Obama and the Democrats even if the GOP controls the Congress, but who knows. If ISIS and the other terrorist groups continue to prosper while America does little, voters may seek to get rid of the incompetents from the Democrats that are now guiding our policies.
So keep this all in mind tomorrow night when you hear about the analysis of the results and in the days and weeks that follow. The people providing the analysis really don't know what the future will bring. They are just guessing.
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