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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Inevitable?

Right now, the big argument for Hillary Clinton being the Democrat nominee is that she is the only one who can beat the Republicans.  Her nomination in 2016 is "inevitable", or so we are told.  The truth is that Hillary's inevitability is looking less and less likely.

A year ago, Hillary was polling far ahead of all the potential Republican candidates.  Her lead over potential Democrat rivals was more than 50% in the polls.  Then came Hillary's book tour.  It was a total fiasco.  We learned from Mrs. Clinton that she and Bill were "dead broke" when they left the White House, even though Bill had a deal for his memoirs that gave him an advance payment of more than ten million dollars.  Indeed, Hillary did not back off from her claims of poverty despite Bill and she getting literally hundreds of thousands of dollars for each speech they gave (and there were many).  It is not often that people worth more than one hundred million dollars claim to be dead broke.

It was not just the claim of poverty that hurt, however,  Hillary's book tour was wooden and filled with other flubs.  The crowds were small and the book sales were even smaller.  The entire tour was a disaster.

That tour was followed by more mistakes coming from the Clinton camp.  Hillary put her foot in her mouth so often that it started to look like some sort of fetish.

Then came the campaign.  Hillary actively hit the trail for a large number of Democrat candidates.  So did Bill.  Only a few of those candidates she supported won, however.  Even in Arkansas, a state which ought to be swayed by the Clintons, the candidates supported by Hillary were smashed on election day.  So Hillary demonstrated that she had no ability to attract voters to the Democrats.  Even worse, she managed to commit more unforced errors as she spoke to the media.  Perhaps the most notable error was when she told a crowd that businesses do not create jobs.  That mistake was laughable, but it was far from the only one in the campaign.

Things went so poorly for Hillary during the campaign that her favorability ratings plummeted to the point where they are now upside down.  Depending on the poll, something like 7% more American voters have a negative view of Hillary than a positive one.  In the exit polling on election day, Hillary was matched against a generic "Republican presidential candidate" she lost badly.  Hillary got only 40% of the vote in that poll.

Since election day, the poor results have continued for Mrs. Clinton.  Today, for example, Quinipiac released a poll showing her with just a lead of 1% in a head to head match up with New Jersey governor Chris Christie.  If Hillary with all her name recognition can only manage a one percent lead over someone like Christie (and all his many negatives), the claim of her "inevitability" is clearly phony.

In the last month, Democrats have been distancing themselves from president Obama.  Just this week, Chuck Schumer actually said that the party's focus on passing Obamacare was a mistake.  Most likely, we will soon see some other Democrats move towards challenging the no-longer inevitable Mrs. Clinton for the nomination.  Indeed, if Hillary's numbers continue to fall, I doubt if she will even run.  Remember, in the last six months as her numbers collapsed, Hillary hasn't had to actually announce positions on the issues of the day.  If she decides to run, that will all change.  Hillary will have to tell us if she supports Obama's unconstitutional actions on immigration.  Hillary will have to tell us if she opposes the tax measures that Obama today threatened to veto.  Hillary will have to tell us her reaction to the riots in Ferguson.  While Hillary may please many in her party with her positions, there will be many others who will become disenchanted with Mrs. Clinton.  For Hillary, happy days are not here again.



 

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