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Wednesday, November 12, 2014

The Global Warming Deal With China

President Obama agreed with the president of China on a pact regarding cutting greenhouse gases to combat global warming.  The short summary of the deal is this:  the USA cuts greenhouse gas emissions and the Chinese agree to that cut.  To be sure, the deal won't be presented in those terms, but that is the reality of the pact nonetheless.  America, which alone among the major economic powers, has been cutting greenhouse gas emissions steadily for many years, pledges to double the pace of those cuts over the next decade.  China promises to stop increasing its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.  So, to be clear, the USA will reduce emissions during the next decade while China will steadily increase emissions during that same time.  Over the next fifteen years, America will spend literally hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars to reduce emissions while China will spend its wealth on growth with a pledge that after fifteen years, it will no longer increase emissions.  Our economy will have to carry the burden of the major costs of the reductions, costs which include not only the direct expense of achieving the cuts, but also the reduced growth that the cuts will inflict.  China will be able to grow unhindered by environmental costs and it will be able to point to this deal with the USA as justification for that advantage.

Look, personally I do not think that the case for global warming has been made.  Temperatures have not risen for over 18 years, and there is no reasonable explanation for this trend.  If greenhouse gases were actually causing global warming, the steady 18 year period would not have occurred.  It makes little sense to spend enormous sums and to disrupt the American economy on the basis of scientific claims that have been disproven.  We cannot blindly go forward because liberal ideology accepts global warming as fact when it is not.  Nevertheless, even if there is validity to the global warming theory, the deal with China is a truly bad one.  China is the biggest producer of greenhouse gas emissions in the world.  If China gets a pass to increase emissions for 15 more years, there is little chance that the world will be able to cut total emissions during that time.  If global warming is really a crisis, then the agreement does nothing to prevent things from getting worse.

After the midterm elections, Obama is trying to regain his relevance.  He needs an agreement he can trumpet as a major accomplishment, but he seems to be giving away the store on this one.  It is not an usual result when Obama negotiates.  In many ways, it is a mirror image of the nuclear arms deal Obama made with the Russians.  In that deal, limits on nuclear weapons were renewed so that America had to make major cuts in its arsenal and the Russians kept what they had with no cuts.  In the current deal replace greenhouse gas emissions for nuclear arms and we have the same template being used.

The sad thing is that if the new Senate is presented with this agreement and refuses the one-sided deal, the media will only talk about how Republicans hate the environment.  Despite that, the Senate should insist on there being a realistic and even handed deal with China.




 

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