President Obama just made a big move that should have an enormous effect in 2016; he issued his unconstitutional order on immigration. Think about it for a minute. Consider the impact that this order will have:
1. Obama has taken immigration off the table as an issue for Republicans for the next presidential election. Instead, he has substituted the question of the constitutionality of his action. Until now, the Republicans were split on the issue; some wanted "comprehensive reform" while others wanted border security or even the old Mitt Romney favorite of "self-deportation". That split no longer ought to exist. All Republicans can unite now in denouncing the president's action as unconstitutional while they work on border security.
2. Obama has instead made this an issue that will split potential Democrat voters in 2016. Will the nominee support Obama's executive action? Hillary Clinton has already announced her support. Will that drive voters from her who are upset by an imperial presidency and who are looking for a return to a more normal one? Hillary certainly may talk about how she will follow the constitution, but there will always be that blinking red light above her head which will be her support of Obama's action.
3. Obama's move is unlikely to change the Hispanic vote much in 2016. None of the people covered by Obama's order will be able to vote in that election. (I should say none will be able to vote legally.) Those who are American citizens will be able to vote, but the big immigration lever that pushed Hispanics to pick Obama over Romney won't be there anymore. The Republican candidate won't be forced in the primaries to choose border security over dealing with the illegals. That candidate can say two things that ought to suffice: first, that Obama made any resolution of the immigration issue in Congress impossible by acting unilaterally and unconstitutionally, and second, that once elected he or she will act with Congress in the proper way to refashion the immigration laws. The media will surely ask for specifics, but generalities ought to suffice.
4. If the GOP can keep its eyes on the target of passing its own agenda items rather than responding to Obama's unconstitutional action, it will be able to demonstrate the benefit of Republican governance and make a strong case for re-election of its candidates to Congress and the Senate in 2016. There are many ways that Congress can limit Obama in the next two years without making them into a war in which both sides look out of control. If they do that, they will prevail again in two years.
1. Obama has taken immigration off the table as an issue for Republicans for the next presidential election. Instead, he has substituted the question of the constitutionality of his action. Until now, the Republicans were split on the issue; some wanted "comprehensive reform" while others wanted border security or even the old Mitt Romney favorite of "self-deportation". That split no longer ought to exist. All Republicans can unite now in denouncing the president's action as unconstitutional while they work on border security.
2. Obama has instead made this an issue that will split potential Democrat voters in 2016. Will the nominee support Obama's executive action? Hillary Clinton has already announced her support. Will that drive voters from her who are upset by an imperial presidency and who are looking for a return to a more normal one? Hillary certainly may talk about how she will follow the constitution, but there will always be that blinking red light above her head which will be her support of Obama's action.
3. Obama's move is unlikely to change the Hispanic vote much in 2016. None of the people covered by Obama's order will be able to vote in that election. (I should say none will be able to vote legally.) Those who are American citizens will be able to vote, but the big immigration lever that pushed Hispanics to pick Obama over Romney won't be there anymore. The Republican candidate won't be forced in the primaries to choose border security over dealing with the illegals. That candidate can say two things that ought to suffice: first, that Obama made any resolution of the immigration issue in Congress impossible by acting unilaterally and unconstitutionally, and second, that once elected he or she will act with Congress in the proper way to refashion the immigration laws. The media will surely ask for specifics, but generalities ought to suffice.
4. If the GOP can keep its eyes on the target of passing its own agenda items rather than responding to Obama's unconstitutional action, it will be able to demonstrate the benefit of Republican governance and make a strong case for re-election of its candidates to Congress and the Senate in 2016. There are many ways that Congress can limit Obama in the next two years without making them into a war in which both sides look out of control. If they do that, they will prevail again in two years.
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