Right now, the president Obama, secretary Kerry and the other nations negotiating with Iran about its nuclear program are trying to come to some resolution of those talks. Only a day or two remain before the deadline for completion of the talks passes. Obama and Kerry are frantic to come up with an agreement that they can tout as a "victory". It is an extremely dangerous situation. If the many leaks from the talks are correct, the end agreement is likely to be one that does not prevent Iran from being a nuclear armed nation but rather guarantees that outcome in a few years.
Let's put aside the silly and shortsighted efforts of Obama and Kerry for the moment. They want their agreement with Iran more than they care about the contents of that agreement. The countries in the rest of the region, however, do not see things in that manner. For Israel, a nuclear armed Iran is a threat to its very existence. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other nations like Azerbaijan which border Iran see a nuclear armed Iran in the same way. These countries understand that Iran with nuclear weapons will be the regional hegemon in a way that has always been the goal of the mullahs in Teheran. The USA and the other nuclear powers might not be willing to use the weapons, but the Shiite theocrats who rule Iran would see destruction of the Sunni Moslem countries of the area as a religious obligation. The level of fear in the Middle East regarding a nuclear Iran is extraordinarily high.
If the negotiations with Iran end with a bad agreement, the most likely next step will be an attack on the Iranian facilities by Israel. The Israelis will not sit by as Iran gains the power to once again cause a holocaust for the Jewish people. Anyone who thinks that they will not strike is just fooling himself. The key here, however, is that the Israeli strike will most likely be joined by actions from the Saudis and other nations. I do not know what form that coordinated attack will take. We may see Saudi planes actually take part in the strike. Alternatively, the Saudis may just allow Israeli jets to take off from some of the airbases near Kuwait that were built for the Gulf War. Letting the Israelis use those bases in "secret" would take a very difficult mission that would push the Israeli air force to its limits and change it instead into a much easier mission. If Azerbaijan were to let Israeli jets use its bases as well, the resulting strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would have a much higher likelihood of success.
The terrible thing is that after a strike on Iran, the likely result is war. The Iranians will not just take this blow. The first thing they will do is to unleash Hezbollah to attack Israel from Lebanon. The Iron Dome system which dealt successfully with the missiles from Gaza will likely not be sufficient to prevent major strikes from Lebanon. Almost assuredly, the Israeli response will be to invade the southern part of Lebanon in an attempt to capture or destroy as many of the Hezbollah missiles as possible. Since the Assad regime in Syria is now a puppet of Iran, it too may attack the Israelis. That could embroil Israel in the Syrian civil war. We could also see Iranian forces attacking Israeli targets and the war could widen to include attacks on Saudi targets as well.
This is a terrible prognosis for the next few months. It is, however, the almost inevitable result of the failed policies towards Iran followed by Obama and Kerry (and Hillary Clinton before him). I just hope that I am wrong.
Let's put aside the silly and shortsighted efforts of Obama and Kerry for the moment. They want their agreement with Iran more than they care about the contents of that agreement. The countries in the rest of the region, however, do not see things in that manner. For Israel, a nuclear armed Iran is a threat to its very existence. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other nations like Azerbaijan which border Iran see a nuclear armed Iran in the same way. These countries understand that Iran with nuclear weapons will be the regional hegemon in a way that has always been the goal of the mullahs in Teheran. The USA and the other nuclear powers might not be willing to use the weapons, but the Shiite theocrats who rule Iran would see destruction of the Sunni Moslem countries of the area as a religious obligation. The level of fear in the Middle East regarding a nuclear Iran is extraordinarily high.
If the negotiations with Iran end with a bad agreement, the most likely next step will be an attack on the Iranian facilities by Israel. The Israelis will not sit by as Iran gains the power to once again cause a holocaust for the Jewish people. Anyone who thinks that they will not strike is just fooling himself. The key here, however, is that the Israeli strike will most likely be joined by actions from the Saudis and other nations. I do not know what form that coordinated attack will take. We may see Saudi planes actually take part in the strike. Alternatively, the Saudis may just allow Israeli jets to take off from some of the airbases near Kuwait that were built for the Gulf War. Letting the Israelis use those bases in "secret" would take a very difficult mission that would push the Israeli air force to its limits and change it instead into a much easier mission. If Azerbaijan were to let Israeli jets use its bases as well, the resulting strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would have a much higher likelihood of success.
The terrible thing is that after a strike on Iran, the likely result is war. The Iranians will not just take this blow. The first thing they will do is to unleash Hezbollah to attack Israel from Lebanon. The Iron Dome system which dealt successfully with the missiles from Gaza will likely not be sufficient to prevent major strikes from Lebanon. Almost assuredly, the Israeli response will be to invade the southern part of Lebanon in an attempt to capture or destroy as many of the Hezbollah missiles as possible. Since the Assad regime in Syria is now a puppet of Iran, it too may attack the Israelis. That could embroil Israel in the Syrian civil war. We could also see Iranian forces attacking Israeli targets and the war could widen to include attacks on Saudi targets as well.
This is a terrible prognosis for the next few months. It is, however, the almost inevitable result of the failed policies towards Iran followed by Obama and Kerry (and Hillary Clinton before him). I just hope that I am wrong.
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