The Democrats have narrowed down their choices for their 2016 convention city to three: Brooklyn, Philadelphia and Columbus, Ohio. DNC chair made the announcement today.
From the standpoint of having adequate hotel rooms for all the delegates and others attending the convention, the only choice is Brooklyn for which all those hotel rooms in Manhattan are available. Philadelphia probably has sufficient rooms in the metro area, but Columbus would be hard pressed to find housing for all those who will need rooms. My guess, however, is that the comfort of the delegates will not be high on the list of criteria forming the basis for the final decision. Instead, the key will be which location will give the Democrats a perceived benefit in the election. From that standpoint, Brooklyn should be eliminated. After all, it seems hardly likely that the Democrats will lose New York in 2016. Indeed, should New York be in play in that election, there is no way in which the Democrats could win. Philadelphia would help in PA and NJ, while Columbus helps in Ohio. The problem, however, for the Democrats is that the governor of Ohio, John Kasich, is now often mentioned as a possible GOP candidate for president or vice president. If Kasich gets the GOP nod, it would be a waste for the Dems to have their convention in Columbus. What this means is that the political calculus is likely to bring the Democrat convention to Philadelphia. That is my prediction. It will be the first convention in Philadelphia since George W Bush was nominated by the Republicans in 2000.
From the standpoint of having adequate hotel rooms for all the delegates and others attending the convention, the only choice is Brooklyn for which all those hotel rooms in Manhattan are available. Philadelphia probably has sufficient rooms in the metro area, but Columbus would be hard pressed to find housing for all those who will need rooms. My guess, however, is that the comfort of the delegates will not be high on the list of criteria forming the basis for the final decision. Instead, the key will be which location will give the Democrats a perceived benefit in the election. From that standpoint, Brooklyn should be eliminated. After all, it seems hardly likely that the Democrats will lose New York in 2016. Indeed, should New York be in play in that election, there is no way in which the Democrats could win. Philadelphia would help in PA and NJ, while Columbus helps in Ohio. The problem, however, for the Democrats is that the governor of Ohio, John Kasich, is now often mentioned as a possible GOP candidate for president or vice president. If Kasich gets the GOP nod, it would be a waste for the Dems to have their convention in Columbus. What this means is that the political calculus is likely to bring the Democrat convention to Philadelphia. That is my prediction. It will be the first convention in Philadelphia since George W Bush was nominated by the Republicans in 2000.
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