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Wednesday, February 4, 2015

The Need For Leadership

The events of the last few days regarding ISIS have presented both horror and opportunity.  The horror, of course, is the terrible murder of the Jordanian pilot by ISIS.  He was burned alive and video of the entire episode was released on the internet.  In response, Jordan executed two terrorists who had been condemned to death after trials.  The fury across Jordan is at extremely high levels.  ISIS not only killed an unarmed prisoner, it also killed him in a way that is prohibited by Islam.

The opportunity, however, is quite different.  ISIS may have found the ground force that will defeat the terror group in Syria.  Until now, Jordan has been split with regard to ISIS.  The air force of King Abdullah has participated in air strikes against ISIS (which is how the pilot came to be captured in the first place.)  There have been great disagreements among the people, though, as to the wisdom of confronting ISIS.  That may have been changed by the brutal ISIS murder.

Jordan has one of the best trained armies in the Middle East.  It is not large, but it has more than three times the number of soldiers that ISIS has.  Sending an expeditionary force from the Jordanian army into Syria to attack ISIS strongholds could provide a major blow to the terror group while allowing Jordan to avenge their pilot in a way supported by the Jordanian people.  ISIS's murder of the pilot could do for Jordan what the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor did for the USA during World War II:  it could end the internal debates and unite the people to face the enemy.

This situation, of course, is not that simple.  It is doubtful that the Assad forces or the Iranians would want to see the Jordanian army rolling across Syria.  There is also the problem that the Jordanians may not be ready or able to fight a long term battle against ISIS.  There is also the question of the ability of Jordanian forces to control this sort of large scale conflict.  What is needed is leadership.  To be clear, I am speaking about American leadership.  For example, the USA might send 10,000 troops to fight with the Jordanian army against ISIS.  I am not advocating that, just pointing out the possibility.  American command and control structures could direct such an operation to bring massive force down on ISIS.  For once, we would have a reliable local ally.  There are all sorts of issues that the USA could handle so as to make the response much more forceful.

Without knowing the real intelligence about ISIS (and the Jordanians), there is no way that we can actually know what is the best course for confronting ISIS.  The White House and the Pentagon, however, have all that intelligence.  (Sorry to use the words "intelligence" and "White House" in the same sentence, but you know what I mean.)  There needs to be a thoughtful but clear response from president Obama.  A speech is not sufficient.  It is time for action.  And not random action.  Obama needs a strategy.  He also needs to tell us all what that strategy is.  In short, he needs to lead. 




 

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