This morning, I saw a rather breathless article on Yahoo News discussing how Hezbollah was about to take control of the region in Syria that borders Israel. The reporter speculated on possible Israeli responses to this event and warned ominously of coming conflicts. The article was massively wrong.
Here are the actual facts:
1. Despite the lack of a peace treaty between Israel and Syria, the border between the two countries has been calm for the last 40 years. The Assad regime kept terrorists away from the area and made sure that nothing happened that might provoke an Israeli cross-border response. There was a border crossing in Quneitra across which there actually was trade between the two sides. In particular, apples grown by the Druse residents of the Golan Heights were sent by truck to be sold in Damascus. There were also visits by Golan residents to relatives in Syria and vice versa.
2. About 9 months ago, the Syrian region was captured from the Assad forces by rebel forces led by the al Nusra front. Al Nusra is the local affiliate of al Qaeda. The border crossing was attacked by the terrorist led forces and the Assad forces fled. The border crossing was shut. Tension along the border with Israel was elevated.
3. Now, the Assad forces are fighting their way back in the region. The Assad forces are joined by their allies Hezbollah and Iran which have each contributed troops to the effort. The outcome of the effort is unclear at the moment. It may well be that the al Qaeda terrorists will be replaced by Assad forces supported by Hezbollah terrorists. Either way, there will be terrorists on the Syrian side of the border. With the Assad forces, at least, there may be control from Damascus by Assad who has tried for many years to avoid conflict with the Israelis.
Put all these facts together and the likelihood of any response by Israel to an advance by the Assad forces is minimal. Certainly, Israel will respond if there are attacks launched across the border from Syria. Indeed, we may see such an attack if one side or the other of the Syrian conflict wants to try to draw the Israelis into their war. Nevertheless, there is no particular reason for alarm of impending war of the sort discussed by Yahoo News. That would be clear to anyone who had even a minimal knowledge of the region.
Here are the actual facts:
1. Despite the lack of a peace treaty between Israel and Syria, the border between the two countries has been calm for the last 40 years. The Assad regime kept terrorists away from the area and made sure that nothing happened that might provoke an Israeli cross-border response. There was a border crossing in Quneitra across which there actually was trade between the two sides. In particular, apples grown by the Druse residents of the Golan Heights were sent by truck to be sold in Damascus. There were also visits by Golan residents to relatives in Syria and vice versa.
2. About 9 months ago, the Syrian region was captured from the Assad forces by rebel forces led by the al Nusra front. Al Nusra is the local affiliate of al Qaeda. The border crossing was attacked by the terrorist led forces and the Assad forces fled. The border crossing was shut. Tension along the border with Israel was elevated.
3. Now, the Assad forces are fighting their way back in the region. The Assad forces are joined by their allies Hezbollah and Iran which have each contributed troops to the effort. The outcome of the effort is unclear at the moment. It may well be that the al Qaeda terrorists will be replaced by Assad forces supported by Hezbollah terrorists. Either way, there will be terrorists on the Syrian side of the border. With the Assad forces, at least, there may be control from Damascus by Assad who has tried for many years to avoid conflict with the Israelis.
Put all these facts together and the likelihood of any response by Israel to an advance by the Assad forces is minimal. Certainly, Israel will respond if there are attacks launched across the border from Syria. Indeed, we may see such an attack if one side or the other of the Syrian conflict wants to try to draw the Israelis into their war. Nevertheless, there is no particular reason for alarm of impending war of the sort discussed by Yahoo News. That would be clear to anyone who had even a minimal knowledge of the region.
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