What could change?

There are now less than four weeks until election day. It is a good time to ponder what could happen that would change the dynamic of the mid term elections.

First, there are the economic issues. On Friday, we will get the last unemployment report prior to the election. Earlier today, ADP reported that private employers cut their payrolls in September, so this does not bode well for the unemployment number to be released on Friday. We also have heard that the government had poll watchers for the November elections come in early and fill our employment forms so that they could get counted as new jobs for September. Even with this effort by the Democrats to pump up the figures for employment, there is unlikely to be a good number coming out on Friday. So, no change here.

Second, there could be (and let's hope there is not) a terrorist attack before the election. There have been many news articles about the terrorist threat of Mumbai style attacks in Europe. such a thing could even happen here in the USA. It certainly makes you wonder what the net effect of such an attack would be. Some would surely rally around Obama as our leader in a time of turmoil. Others, however, would criticize Obama for the failure of his administration to stop such attacks unlike the Bush years. After all, we have been incredibly lucky that neither the underwear bomber or the Times Square Bomber had the competence to actually carry out their plots properly. when you throw in the Fort Hood shooter and any other attack, that would make quite a number of attacks during Obama's term compared to none under Bush after the initial attack on 9-11. My best guess is that such an attack wouldnot change the political parameters.

Third, there could be some scadal that tarred either the Republicans or the Democrats. This is highly unlikely, particularly for the Republicans. such a scandal would only affect the voting if it were something that could be tied to the entire leadership of one or the other party. Since the Republicans are totally out of power there is unlikely to be any scandal that could affect more than one or another race for them. For the Democrats, a scandal would have to affect someone like Obama, Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid. That is not very likely either.

Beyond these possibilities, there is always the unexpected that could occur. Iran could detonate a nuclear weapon; there could be a shooting war between China and Taiwan or between Israel and Hezbollah; the sovereign debt of one or another country could collapse, or the like. The point here is that you never know what will be coming, so things could always change. None of it seems very likely however.