With the end of 2013, there are endless lists of the years big events, important people, major changes, winners and losers, and all sorts of other things. Then there are the predictions of major events in 2014. With all these articles, there are two major developments underway right now that have not even been mentioned in anything that I have seen.
The first, and perhaps the most important in the long run, is the reawakening of Japanese nationalism. For the last 70 years, Japan has been a loyal ally of the USA and has relied on America to defend it. The Japanese armed forces have been extremely small. The Japanese impact on world affairs has been minimal. Japan has been essentially an economic force, but not a national one. That seems now to be changing. Just in the last week, the Japanese prime minister paid an official visit to a shrine commemorating the spirits of dead Japanese soldiers. While that hardly sounds like a provocative act or a declaration of independence, it was both. First, the cemetery houses some of the leaders of Japan from World War II. As a result, both the Chinese and the Koreans denounced the visit to the shrine as an affront to all of the victims who suffered at the hands of Japan during that war. For many decades, pressure from China and Korea has kept the Japanese government from visiting the shrine, but that response seems to have ended. Further, the American commentary on the visit was to express disappointment with it. So the prime minister made the visit despite the wishes of the United States and the strong opposition of China and Korea.
A visit to a shrine is symbolic, but the actions being taken by Japan in building up its military forces is not. The Japanese are removing the restrictions on the military put in place after World War II and simultaneously are greatly strengthening those forces. Even so, Japan is hardly a military power capable of dealing with the armed forces of China or South Korea. Nevertheless, should the Japanese buildup continue, we will see in a few years that a new major power has emerged in the Pacific. It will change the world in countless ways.
The second major development is happening in Turkey. In recent weeks, the stridently Islamic government of that country has been shaken by major scandals that threaten to bring it down. If the current upset continues and the government falls, new elections would be likely to bring the opposition secular parties back into power. Turkey has a long tradition of secularism that began with Kemal Attaturk in the period after World War I when he helped establish Turkey from the remains of the old Ottoman Empire. Secular Turkey was very much a Moslem country, but its people were free to follow other religions without interference and its international policies were not always guided by religious issues. For example, Turkey was for many decades a close friend of Israel even though the Palestinians were co-religionists and the Israelis were not. Under the current Turkish government, that view was reversed.
A secular, but Sunni Moslem Turkey would be a major blow to the terrorists around the world. Turkey has never been a supporter of terrorism, and I do not mean to question the Turks' opposition to the likes of al Qaeda. Nevertheless, the current Turkish government has had no problem helping the Syrian rebels aligned with al Qaeda. Nor has Ankara worried that Hamas is a terror group when it supports them against the Israelis. The truth is that a secular oriented Turkey would be the only large Moslem country in the Middle East that is both stable and not a theocracy. The Turks might still help the rebels in Syria, but that help would be tilted away from the terrorists. The Turks would still confront the Iranians but it would not be on a religious basis that would augment the trend towards sectarian violence. The Turks might also move towards some sort of accommodation with the Kurds, a position unthinkable to the current Islamist government in Ankara. Having a stable Kurdistan, even if it were only autonomous regions in Iraq, Syria and Turkey would provide a major force for peace in the area.
So when you consider what 2014 is likely to bring, don't forget to pay attention to Japan and Turkey. They are the sleepers at the moment, but they could well be front and center by the time we get to the summer.
The first, and perhaps the most important in the long run, is the reawakening of Japanese nationalism. For the last 70 years, Japan has been a loyal ally of the USA and has relied on America to defend it. The Japanese armed forces have been extremely small. The Japanese impact on world affairs has been minimal. Japan has been essentially an economic force, but not a national one. That seems now to be changing. Just in the last week, the Japanese prime minister paid an official visit to a shrine commemorating the spirits of dead Japanese soldiers. While that hardly sounds like a provocative act or a declaration of independence, it was both. First, the cemetery houses some of the leaders of Japan from World War II. As a result, both the Chinese and the Koreans denounced the visit to the shrine as an affront to all of the victims who suffered at the hands of Japan during that war. For many decades, pressure from China and Korea has kept the Japanese government from visiting the shrine, but that response seems to have ended. Further, the American commentary on the visit was to express disappointment with it. So the prime minister made the visit despite the wishes of the United States and the strong opposition of China and Korea.
A visit to a shrine is symbolic, but the actions being taken by Japan in building up its military forces is not. The Japanese are removing the restrictions on the military put in place after World War II and simultaneously are greatly strengthening those forces. Even so, Japan is hardly a military power capable of dealing with the armed forces of China or South Korea. Nevertheless, should the Japanese buildup continue, we will see in a few years that a new major power has emerged in the Pacific. It will change the world in countless ways.
The second major development is happening in Turkey. In recent weeks, the stridently Islamic government of that country has been shaken by major scandals that threaten to bring it down. If the current upset continues and the government falls, new elections would be likely to bring the opposition secular parties back into power. Turkey has a long tradition of secularism that began with Kemal Attaturk in the period after World War I when he helped establish Turkey from the remains of the old Ottoman Empire. Secular Turkey was very much a Moslem country, but its people were free to follow other religions without interference and its international policies were not always guided by religious issues. For example, Turkey was for many decades a close friend of Israel even though the Palestinians were co-religionists and the Israelis were not. Under the current Turkish government, that view was reversed.
A secular, but Sunni Moslem Turkey would be a major blow to the terrorists around the world. Turkey has never been a supporter of terrorism, and I do not mean to question the Turks' opposition to the likes of al Qaeda. Nevertheless, the current Turkish government has had no problem helping the Syrian rebels aligned with al Qaeda. Nor has Ankara worried that Hamas is a terror group when it supports them against the Israelis. The truth is that a secular oriented Turkey would be the only large Moslem country in the Middle East that is both stable and not a theocracy. The Turks might still help the rebels in Syria, but that help would be tilted away from the terrorists. The Turks would still confront the Iranians but it would not be on a religious basis that would augment the trend towards sectarian violence. The Turks might also move towards some sort of accommodation with the Kurds, a position unthinkable to the current Islamist government in Ankara. Having a stable Kurdistan, even if it were only autonomous regions in Iraq, Syria and Turkey would provide a major force for peace in the area.
So when you consider what 2014 is likely to bring, don't forget to pay attention to Japan and Turkey. They are the sleepers at the moment, but they could well be front and center by the time we get to the summer.
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