Since the start of 2013, there has been an seemingly endless stream of articles discussing the demographic shift in America that make a continuing majority for Democrats inevitable (at least according to the people writing the articles.) Simply put, the argument is that rising percentages of minority voters and the enduring allegiance of young people to the Democrats give that party a lock on the presidency and eventually on the Congress as well. Today comes poll results that put the lie to this argument, and it comes from Harvard of all places.
In a poll done periodically as part of a study by Harvard's Institute of Politics, the youngest American voters, those aged 18-29, have turned against president Obama and the Democrats. Obama's job performance is viewed with favor by only 41% of these folks while 54% disapprove. When the questions go from the general to the specific, an even higher percentage disapprove. The Millenials disapprove of Obama's performance on Syria by 60-33%, on the economy by 61 to 33%, on healthcare by 61 to 34% and on the federal budget by 66 to 28%. As for Obamacare, the loss is 57% to 38%. These are not just poor numbers for the president, they are a catastrophe for the Democrats.
Over many decades, a pattern has become clear with regard to party identification in America. Voters switch around during their twenties. By the time they get to their thirties, a great many more are fixed in their views and party allegiance with a much smaller number of swing voters. When there is a major event which shifts the allegiances of the young, the effect continues for decades thereafter. If this pattern holds with the Millenials, we may be witnessing with Obamacare, an event which pushes hundreds of thousands or millions of these voters away from the Democrats for decades to come. Indeed, if the failures of Obamacare continue to grow and the resulting disaster hits the Millenials (as seems most likely given the lackadaisical response from the White House with regard to actually correcting the problems rather than campaigning about them), we could see the movement of Millenials away from the Democrats in such numbers that it could end all hopes by that party of achieving a durable majority.
One last important note about the Harvard poll is this: less than one in three of the Millenials who currently have no insurance say that they are likely to enroll in an Obamacare policy on the exchanges. If this figure does not change, then the collapse of Obamacare is inevitable. And, of course, if that collapse happens, it will move even more of this group away from the Democrats.
In a poll done periodically as part of a study by Harvard's Institute of Politics, the youngest American voters, those aged 18-29, have turned against president Obama and the Democrats. Obama's job performance is viewed with favor by only 41% of these folks while 54% disapprove. When the questions go from the general to the specific, an even higher percentage disapprove. The Millenials disapprove of Obama's performance on Syria by 60-33%, on the economy by 61 to 33%, on healthcare by 61 to 34% and on the federal budget by 66 to 28%. As for Obamacare, the loss is 57% to 38%. These are not just poor numbers for the president, they are a catastrophe for the Democrats.
Over many decades, a pattern has become clear with regard to party identification in America. Voters switch around during their twenties. By the time they get to their thirties, a great many more are fixed in their views and party allegiance with a much smaller number of swing voters. When there is a major event which shifts the allegiances of the young, the effect continues for decades thereafter. If this pattern holds with the Millenials, we may be witnessing with Obamacare, an event which pushes hundreds of thousands or millions of these voters away from the Democrats for decades to come. Indeed, if the failures of Obamacare continue to grow and the resulting disaster hits the Millenials (as seems most likely given the lackadaisical response from the White House with regard to actually correcting the problems rather than campaigning about them), we could see the movement of Millenials away from the Democrats in such numbers that it could end all hopes by that party of achieving a durable majority.
One last important note about the Harvard poll is this: less than one in three of the Millenials who currently have no insurance say that they are likely to enroll in an Obamacare policy on the exchanges. If this figure does not change, then the collapse of Obamacare is inevitable. And, of course, if that collapse happens, it will move even more of this group away from the Democrats.
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