I read an article in the Japan Times discussing the "impending" war between Japan and China over the Senkaku islands. To say the least it was disquieting. For most Americans, a dispute over some uninhabited islands is not something that could lead to war between the two Asian giants. That is why this Japanese reaction to the dispute is so alarming.
One point that the article makes is that the fight over the Senkakus could be a way for the Chinese leadership to distract attention from economic problems. Is the Chinese real estate bubble actually bursting? Maybe is the only possible answer right now. We know that China has built apartment complexes and office towers that are largely uninhabited. There are small cities where only 5% of the units are occupied. If China has reached the point where the values of these buildings are going to come down to reality and reflect their lack of tenants, then the Chinese economy is about to take an enormous hit. We could watch China move into a recession where its economy contracts by 5 to 10%. While that contraction would mean a terrible blow to the world economy, especially for countries who depend on exports to China for a substantial piece of their GDP (Australia is a good example), the recession would be an almost unimaginable nightmare for the new Chinese leadership. Suddenly, the lack of freedom in China and the one-party rule of the Communist Party would no longer be offset by unending economic growth that has moved hundreds of millions of people into the middle class. The leadership might welcome a foreign distraction to avoid the focus on the economic failures.
Another theory is that China's new leaders need to consolidate their power and are cementing relationships with military hardliners by their actions in the Senkakus. This is another theory about which we just don't know the truth.
Both of these theories could be complete nonsense. Maybe the Chinese are just trying to push for control of the Senkakus now because they understand the current weakness of president Obama and believe that Japan will fold because it will be unwilling to put its future on the line based solely on promises that come from Obama. Again, who knows!
One thing is certain, however. A war between China and Japan would be a world wide disaster. The fight need not involve nuclear weapons for that to be the case. The disruption of the world economy when the countries with the second and third largest GDP fight would be enormous and would hit everyone. Even worse, it is most likely that if shooting breaks out, America will be drawn into the battle under our treaty with Japan. That would make a terrible situation into something almost unthinkable: a war between two nations with substantial nuclear arms.
I know that the situation has gotten the attention of Obama and his people. I just wish that there were someone in the administration with the ability to defuse this bomb. To paraphrase the usual line: "past failure is no guarantee of future failure." The problem, however, is that past failure (like the usual outcome of Obama's foreign policy moves) is a pretty good indicator of the likely future outcome.
One point that the article makes is that the fight over the Senkakus could be a way for the Chinese leadership to distract attention from economic problems. Is the Chinese real estate bubble actually bursting? Maybe is the only possible answer right now. We know that China has built apartment complexes and office towers that are largely uninhabited. There are small cities where only 5% of the units are occupied. If China has reached the point where the values of these buildings are going to come down to reality and reflect their lack of tenants, then the Chinese economy is about to take an enormous hit. We could watch China move into a recession where its economy contracts by 5 to 10%. While that contraction would mean a terrible blow to the world economy, especially for countries who depend on exports to China for a substantial piece of their GDP (Australia is a good example), the recession would be an almost unimaginable nightmare for the new Chinese leadership. Suddenly, the lack of freedom in China and the one-party rule of the Communist Party would no longer be offset by unending economic growth that has moved hundreds of millions of people into the middle class. The leadership might welcome a foreign distraction to avoid the focus on the economic failures.
Another theory is that China's new leaders need to consolidate their power and are cementing relationships with military hardliners by their actions in the Senkakus. This is another theory about which we just don't know the truth.
Both of these theories could be complete nonsense. Maybe the Chinese are just trying to push for control of the Senkakus now because they understand the current weakness of president Obama and believe that Japan will fold because it will be unwilling to put its future on the line based solely on promises that come from Obama. Again, who knows!
One thing is certain, however. A war between China and Japan would be a world wide disaster. The fight need not involve nuclear weapons for that to be the case. The disruption of the world economy when the countries with the second and third largest GDP fight would be enormous and would hit everyone. Even worse, it is most likely that if shooting breaks out, America will be drawn into the battle under our treaty with Japan. That would make a terrible situation into something almost unthinkable: a war between two nations with substantial nuclear arms.
I know that the situation has gotten the attention of Obama and his people. I just wish that there were someone in the administration with the ability to defuse this bomb. To paraphrase the usual line: "past failure is no guarantee of future failure." The problem, however, is that past failure (like the usual outcome of Obama's foreign policy moves) is a pretty good indicator of the likely future outcome.
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