With 2014 about to begin, I am wondering how president Obama and the Obamacrats see the road ahead. Simply put, under what course do they expect their fortunes to improve?
Right now, things look bleak for Obama and his party. The last major poll had Obama at 39% approval, Republicans ahead by 5% on the generic Congressional ballot and Christie leading Clinton in a 2016 trial run. Individual polls in 2014 senate and house races all point the same way: the Republicans are way ahead of where they were just three months ago. If the election were held today, the GOP would keep the House and likely take control of the Senate.
When the Obamacare roll out began, things were quite the reverse. The Democrats had a substantial lead in the generic Congressional ballot, Obama had job ratings around 50%, Clinton led all opponents for 2016 and Democrats looked to have a lock on retaining the Senate in 2014. Then the steady drip, drip, drip of the Obamacare fiasco began. The website flopped in a way that was incomprehensible. Remember that Obama and his people had over three years to design the site and they spent at least five times more on this site than any other one in history, but still it failed miserably. Then came public realization that Obama had lied when he told America it could keep its plans and doctors under Obamacare. That was followed by millions of cancelled policies which left Americans struggling just to keep insured at a reasonable cost. Then came the sticker shock and reduced services from the expensive and inadequate plans being sold on the exchanges. And those are just the biggest problems on a list that goes on for pages. On top of the Obamacare mess, we also had Obama's ridiculous deal with Iran which even the average American could see was idiotic. And through all of this, Obama seemed incapable of responding forcefully and intelligently to the slew of problems hitting the country.
So let's get back to the basic question: how do the Democrats and Obama think they will be able to recover from these messes? From what they are saying, it seems that Obama and his cronies think that Obamacare will turn things around. Soon, or so they think, there will be legions of grateful Americans who have health insurance for the first time and who will become strong Democrats in thanks for that change. Let's pause her to examine this concept. It seems to me that it has two very basic flaws. First, the people who will get insurance are already overwhelmingly Democrats, while the folks who get hit the hardest by Obamacare (those who make too much for subsidies but not enough to afford the huge cost increases caused by Obamacare) and much more evenly split. That means that Obamacare will keep the one group Democrats and turn the other group towards Republicans. The net change will be a big move towards the Republicans. Second, the Democrats are missing the point that many of the uninsured did not want to have insurance. For a single person in his or her 20s or 30s making $30,000 per year, the new requirement to spend $2400 on health insurance is not the great thing that the Democrats think it will be. Sure, some of these folks will be happy to have insurance, but they could have had insurance for this amount in the past in much of the country. That means that these people chose not to be insured. It is another reason why folks will be pushed away from the Democrats and towards the Republicans.
Another plan by the Obamacrats for political salvation is for the economy to improve to the point where that news outweighs the drag caused by Obamacare. We will have to wait to see how that plays out, but right now the plan is not looking good. It is true that the economy has been improving a bit over the last six months. The problem is that starting January 1, billions of dollars are going to come out of the pockets of consumers to pay the new Obamacare taxes and health insurance premiums. The big question is whether or not the resulting decline in consumer spending will drag us back down towards a recession. Then there is the issue of the Chinese economy and whether or not it will fall prey to a recession as its real estate bubble bursts. If China contracts, the effects will be felt in the USA and nothing Obama does will change that. So, on balance, the chance that a good economy will overcome the bad effects of Obamacare is a big unknown. On this score, the Democrats are betting their future prospects on a roll of the dice.
Right now, 2014 is looking good for the GOP. The Obamacrats went down the road to ruin of their own free choice. It does not look like they have an easy way back.
Right now, things look bleak for Obama and his party. The last major poll had Obama at 39% approval, Republicans ahead by 5% on the generic Congressional ballot and Christie leading Clinton in a 2016 trial run. Individual polls in 2014 senate and house races all point the same way: the Republicans are way ahead of where they were just three months ago. If the election were held today, the GOP would keep the House and likely take control of the Senate.
When the Obamacare roll out began, things were quite the reverse. The Democrats had a substantial lead in the generic Congressional ballot, Obama had job ratings around 50%, Clinton led all opponents for 2016 and Democrats looked to have a lock on retaining the Senate in 2014. Then the steady drip, drip, drip of the Obamacare fiasco began. The website flopped in a way that was incomprehensible. Remember that Obama and his people had over three years to design the site and they spent at least five times more on this site than any other one in history, but still it failed miserably. Then came public realization that Obama had lied when he told America it could keep its plans and doctors under Obamacare. That was followed by millions of cancelled policies which left Americans struggling just to keep insured at a reasonable cost. Then came the sticker shock and reduced services from the expensive and inadequate plans being sold on the exchanges. And those are just the biggest problems on a list that goes on for pages. On top of the Obamacare mess, we also had Obama's ridiculous deal with Iran which even the average American could see was idiotic. And through all of this, Obama seemed incapable of responding forcefully and intelligently to the slew of problems hitting the country.
So let's get back to the basic question: how do the Democrats and Obama think they will be able to recover from these messes? From what they are saying, it seems that Obama and his cronies think that Obamacare will turn things around. Soon, or so they think, there will be legions of grateful Americans who have health insurance for the first time and who will become strong Democrats in thanks for that change. Let's pause her to examine this concept. It seems to me that it has two very basic flaws. First, the people who will get insurance are already overwhelmingly Democrats, while the folks who get hit the hardest by Obamacare (those who make too much for subsidies but not enough to afford the huge cost increases caused by Obamacare) and much more evenly split. That means that Obamacare will keep the one group Democrats and turn the other group towards Republicans. The net change will be a big move towards the Republicans. Second, the Democrats are missing the point that many of the uninsured did not want to have insurance. For a single person in his or her 20s or 30s making $30,000 per year, the new requirement to spend $2400 on health insurance is not the great thing that the Democrats think it will be. Sure, some of these folks will be happy to have insurance, but they could have had insurance for this amount in the past in much of the country. That means that these people chose not to be insured. It is another reason why folks will be pushed away from the Democrats and towards the Republicans.
Another plan by the Obamacrats for political salvation is for the economy to improve to the point where that news outweighs the drag caused by Obamacare. We will have to wait to see how that plays out, but right now the plan is not looking good. It is true that the economy has been improving a bit over the last six months. The problem is that starting January 1, billions of dollars are going to come out of the pockets of consumers to pay the new Obamacare taxes and health insurance premiums. The big question is whether or not the resulting decline in consumer spending will drag us back down towards a recession. Then there is the issue of the Chinese economy and whether or not it will fall prey to a recession as its real estate bubble bursts. If China contracts, the effects will be felt in the USA and nothing Obama does will change that. So, on balance, the chance that a good economy will overcome the bad effects of Obamacare is a big unknown. On this score, the Democrats are betting their future prospects on a roll of the dice.
Right now, 2014 is looking good for the GOP. The Obamacrats went down the road to ruin of their own free choice. It does not look like they have an easy way back.
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