Obamacare is going to be dumped. That may take the form of a repeal or a delay of some sort or even a major "modification" that does away with most of the essential elements of the law. We do not know the form yet, but it is all but certain that the Obamacare law will not go on in its present form.
If you wonder why I am so certain of this outcome, let me tell you a few numbers:
1. The Real Clear Politics average on the generic congressional vote poll has the GOP up by jut under 3% with every one of the five polling organizations included in the average showing a Republican lead. These numbers translate into substantial gains in November for the GOP (if they hold).
2. The most recent poll taken in Arkansas shows senator Pryor losing by 7% to his likely Republican opponent Tom Cotton.
3. The latest poll in Michigan shows the Republican candidate for the senate seat now held by the Democrats to be up by 2% over his Democrat opponent.
4. In North Carolina, polling shows senator Hagan losing to the most likely of her Republican opponents.
5. The most recent polling in Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado show that in these states Chris Christie polls ahead of Hillary Clinton for 2016 everywhere but Ohio where Hillary leads by just 1%. Keep in mind that had Iowa, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado gone for Romney in 2012, he would be president now rather than Obama.
6. In very blue Illinois, the latest polls in the governor's race show it to be a toss up with the incumbent Democrat losing to two potential challengers. For an incumbent, these figures indicate a likely loss.
Look, I know that it is very early in the election year. We still have almost eleven months until election day. The problem for Democrats, however, is that Obamacare is killing them, all of them. Just two months ago, before all the Obamacare problems hit the news, the Democrats were talking about possibly taking back the House and increasing the number of senators that they held. Now, if they do nothing to separate themselves from Obamacare, the Democrats are looking at their future as a cruise on the Titanic. Unless these numbers turn around by the middle of January at the latest, we are going to witness more and more congressional Democrats jumping off the Obamacare bandwagon so that they can turn into either opponents or at least advocates for delay or major change in the law.
My guess is that this sort of move will not help in November, but that will not stop the Democrats from trying. Obamacare is going down and it is going to take president Obama's second term with it.
If you wonder why I am so certain of this outcome, let me tell you a few numbers:
1. The Real Clear Politics average on the generic congressional vote poll has the GOP up by jut under 3% with every one of the five polling organizations included in the average showing a Republican lead. These numbers translate into substantial gains in November for the GOP (if they hold).
2. The most recent poll taken in Arkansas shows senator Pryor losing by 7% to his likely Republican opponent Tom Cotton.
3. The latest poll in Michigan shows the Republican candidate for the senate seat now held by the Democrats to be up by 2% over his Democrat opponent.
4. In North Carolina, polling shows senator Hagan losing to the most likely of her Republican opponents.
5. The most recent polling in Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado show that in these states Chris Christie polls ahead of Hillary Clinton for 2016 everywhere but Ohio where Hillary leads by just 1%. Keep in mind that had Iowa, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado gone for Romney in 2012, he would be president now rather than Obama.
6. In very blue Illinois, the latest polls in the governor's race show it to be a toss up with the incumbent Democrat losing to two potential challengers. For an incumbent, these figures indicate a likely loss.
Look, I know that it is very early in the election year. We still have almost eleven months until election day. The problem for Democrats, however, is that Obamacare is killing them, all of them. Just two months ago, before all the Obamacare problems hit the news, the Democrats were talking about possibly taking back the House and increasing the number of senators that they held. Now, if they do nothing to separate themselves from Obamacare, the Democrats are looking at their future as a cruise on the Titanic. Unless these numbers turn around by the middle of January at the latest, we are going to witness more and more congressional Democrats jumping off the Obamacare bandwagon so that they can turn into either opponents or at least advocates for delay or major change in the law.
My guess is that this sort of move will not help in November, but that will not stop the Democrats from trying. Obamacare is going down and it is going to take president Obama's second term with it.
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