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Friday, December 20, 2013

For Obama, Failure is the New Success

President Obama proudly told America today that during the first three weeks of December, 500,000 people got insurance through the federal Obamacare exchange.  That number is too low for any of the goals of the program to be met.  For Obama, however, since the numbers are better than those achieved when the website did not work at all, he is bragging about it.  Failure is the new success.

Let's consider the figures.  We know that the Obamacrats never tell us how many people have actually bought insurance; instead they tell us how many people "selected" a plan whether or not they ordered it or paid for it.  That means that the 500,000 figure that Obama is using is much too high if we want to know how many people actually are getting insurance through the exchange.  The most likely number is well less than 50% since huge numbers have corrupted information sent to the insurance companies and a big chunk of the rest never order or pay for the policies.  Let's assume, however, to be conservative, that 300,000 policies were actually sold and paid for.

The first three weeks of December ought to be the busiest three weeks of the year for the exchange.  They have compressed into them all the people who wanted to get insurance starting January first but who could not get coverage during the first two months due to the failure of the website.  They also have compressed into them all those procrastinators who waited until the last minute to get January coverage. 

The rest of December, by contrast, ought to be much lighter.  It will be too late for most people to get coverage starting January 1 if they sign up next week.  Also, folks will be busy with the holidays and will not be spending time buying insurance.

If another 100,000 people were to buy insurance on the exchanges by the end of this month, that would leave total purchases on the federal website at roughly 450,000 for the first three months of operation.  To get to the Obamacare goal of 7 million total, the federal site has to sell roughly two thirds of that amount or 4.7 million policies by March 31.  That means 450,000 policies sold in the first three months and 4.25 million sold in the next three months.  Clearly, the program is failing despite Obama's bragging today.  But wait, there's more.  The 7 million policy goal is for additional coverages; it does not consider the close to 7 million policies that have been cancelled due to Obamacare which now need to be replaced.  Most of those people whose policies are cancelled will need to buy coverage on the exchange, but again, to be conservative, let's assume that only a third will have to do so.  That raises the 7 million total to close to 10 million total.  It also means that the federal exchange will need to sell about 6.7 million policies by March 31 to meet the program's goal.  That would require 450,000 policies sold in the first three months and 6.25 million policies sold in the next three months.  Can you say major failure????

I have now read three articles about what Obama had to say on this subject today.  In each case, the reporter from the mainstream media just took Obama's claims at face value and reported a big "success."  You and I know, however, that it was actually a major failure.

It really is true:  for Obama failure is the new success.




 

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