Just this morning, I have (1) seen a report on television about the major decline in support for president Obama by Hispanics, (2) read an article in the New York media about how Charlie Rangel and Obama hate each other, (3) saw a report on the internet about women moving away from Obama because of Obamacare, and (4) heard a radio commentary about how young people do not understand how the Obama administration was unable to build a properly functioning web site. Each of these was interesting, but together they represent a tsunami of change in the political seas.
One year ago, all that we heard was that the new Obama coalition would guarantee the Democrats a majority for decades to come. The biggest components of that coalition were African Americans, Hispanics, women and young people. There are other groups in the mix as well, but they were not as important for the conclusion. Here, on just one morning, there are articles that indicate major problems for Obama in each of the four groups. Indeed, Obama's poll numbers have fallen by large amounts with Hispanics, youth, and women. They have stayed high only among blacks. One thing is certain, though. Congressman Rangel would never be out there in an article explaining how he hates Obama if he felt that the president was still a political power. Most likely, the article is Rangel's way of showing distance between himself and Obama. Remember that Rangel's district is now only about 27% African American, and no one reads polls better than Charlie.
There are still eleven months before the elections, and we may see a complete reversal of the current trends. Nevertheless, a moment like this one is important to keep in mind the next time you read an article that tells you about the long term trends that make one political outcome or another "inevitable". There is just no such thing in politics as long term inevitability.
One year ago, all that we heard was that the new Obama coalition would guarantee the Democrats a majority for decades to come. The biggest components of that coalition were African Americans, Hispanics, women and young people. There are other groups in the mix as well, but they were not as important for the conclusion. Here, on just one morning, there are articles that indicate major problems for Obama in each of the four groups. Indeed, Obama's poll numbers have fallen by large amounts with Hispanics, youth, and women. They have stayed high only among blacks. One thing is certain, though. Congressman Rangel would never be out there in an article explaining how he hates Obama if he felt that the president was still a political power. Most likely, the article is Rangel's way of showing distance between himself and Obama. Remember that Rangel's district is now only about 27% African American, and no one reads polls better than Charlie.
There are still eleven months before the elections, and we may see a complete reversal of the current trends. Nevertheless, a moment like this one is important to keep in mind the next time you read an article that tells you about the long term trends that make one political outcome or another "inevitable". There is just no such thing in politics as long term inevitability.
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