It's out there in the news, but few people are noticing it. China is threatening military action against Japan. The subject of the threats is a group of tiny islands called the Senkaku chain. The islands have been under Japanese control for a long time, at least since the end of World War II, and they are uninhabited. In recent years, however, a large possible oil field has been uncovered in the ocean surrounding the islands, hence the attempt by China to grab the land. Within the last month, China declared an air defense zone surrounding the islands and banned flights through the area absent Chinese approval. The USA has announced that it does not accept the Chinese claim and flew B-52 bombers through the Chinese air defense zone without permission to emphasize that position. America has also announced that it considers the Senkaku islands included within the mutual defense treaty that we have with Japan. The Japanese have sent navy and air assets to and over the islands on a repeated basis since the announcement by the Chinese. It is in response to these moves that the Chinese have decided to raise the stakes in this dispute.
So how can it be that China is willing to threaten Japan even though the Japanese have the backing of the US military? The answer is pretty simple. The Chinese have watched president Obama's unwillingness to use American force. They have watched Obama run from confrontation. They have watched Obama negotiate away America's positions in exchange for vague promises that amount to nothing. The Chinese know that (to use the old cliché) they are playing chess while Obama is struggling to play checkers.
As I write this, vice president Biden is on his way to Beijing. One sure subject to be discussed is the Senkaku islands. The idea that an issue of world peace is to be negotiated by Joe Biden, a man who likely has trouble deciding what to order at McDonalds, is chilling. Who knows what he will come up with. Maybe China will stop threatening the Senkaku chain in exchange for Taiwan and a country to be named later.
America has a serious problem here. The islands are not important, but the concept is. Can we really take a hard line against the Chinese? What if they were to stop buying US treasury securities and dump some of the ones they already hold? Would the Federal Reserve just up quantitative easing to 150 billion dollars per month to take up the slack? Would that lead to a loss of confidence in US government securities, soaring interest rates and a recession/depression? The Chinese would not want that to happen since it would kick their economy too, but they certainly would be willing to bet that Obama would blink before they would in this international game of chicken. After all, they have seen Obama in action. They know the likely game plan developed in Washington: Obama will give a series of speeches calling on China to withdraw its claims to the Senkaku. If the Chinese refuse, Obama will likely crumble.
Alas, the cost of weak leadership!
So how can it be that China is willing to threaten Japan even though the Japanese have the backing of the US military? The answer is pretty simple. The Chinese have watched president Obama's unwillingness to use American force. They have watched Obama run from confrontation. They have watched Obama negotiate away America's positions in exchange for vague promises that amount to nothing. The Chinese know that (to use the old cliché) they are playing chess while Obama is struggling to play checkers.
As I write this, vice president Biden is on his way to Beijing. One sure subject to be discussed is the Senkaku islands. The idea that an issue of world peace is to be negotiated by Joe Biden, a man who likely has trouble deciding what to order at McDonalds, is chilling. Who knows what he will come up with. Maybe China will stop threatening the Senkaku chain in exchange for Taiwan and a country to be named later.
America has a serious problem here. The islands are not important, but the concept is. Can we really take a hard line against the Chinese? What if they were to stop buying US treasury securities and dump some of the ones they already hold? Would the Federal Reserve just up quantitative easing to 150 billion dollars per month to take up the slack? Would that lead to a loss of confidence in US government securities, soaring interest rates and a recession/depression? The Chinese would not want that to happen since it would kick their economy too, but they certainly would be willing to bet that Obama would blink before they would in this international game of chicken. After all, they have seen Obama in action. They know the likely game plan developed in Washington: Obama will give a series of speeches calling on China to withdraw its claims to the Senkaku. If the Chinese refuse, Obama will likely crumble.
Alas, the cost of weak leadership!
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