We are a long way away from picking nominees for the 2016 presidential elections, but it is worth noting that there is a clear trend in the polling over the last year: Hillary Clinton is heading downhill. There have been a batch of articles pointing out that Hillary's favorability ratings have fallen over the last year. Her embarrassing book tour and her series of gaffes have done her image no good, but merely a falling favorability is not enough to say that voters still won't prefer her. This morning, however, I looked at the head to head polling match ups done over the last year. No matter which Republican is matched against Hillary, her numbers have trended steeply down over the last year. At the start of 2014, Mrs. Clinton routinely got something like 55% of the vote against eight different Republicans. At the end of 2014, her numbers are now in the low 40's. The numbers for the Republicans did not go up anything like Clinton's came down. The change in the numbers is a demonstration that voters are moving away from her rather than towards any particular potential Republican candidate.
Even more than most polls, the results discussed above are not very important. Nevertheless, these are numbers that are unlikely to be missed by potential Democrat candidates who may choose now to jump in to oppose her. It is one thing to win as the "inevitable" Democrat candidate. That, however, is a hard thing to do when you look anything but inevitable.
Even more than most polls, the results discussed above are not very important. Nevertheless, these are numbers that are unlikely to be missed by potential Democrat candidates who may choose now to jump in to oppose her. It is one thing to win as the "inevitable" Democrat candidate. That, however, is a hard thing to do when you look anything but inevitable.
No comments:
Post a Comment