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Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Obama's Trial Balloon For Retreat Regarding Syria

For many months, the Obama administration has been telling the nation and the world that there would be no benefit in the fight against ISIS from having a "no-fly" zone set up in Syria.  That is obviously correct.  After all, ISIS has no planes or helicopters or aircraft of any sort.  Carving out an area where planes were not allowed would have no effect on ISIS.  It would just be a zone in which American forces would prevent ISIS from using weapons that ISIS does not have.

During those same many months, the president of Turkey has been calling for the establishment of a no-fly zone.  The Turks want that zone to prevent the use of aircraft belonging to the Syria air force which remains under the control of Bashir al Assad.  The no fly zone would stop the Assad air force from hitting any of the Syrian rebels.  Those rebels include the few who the USA now supports as well as the majority of the rebels who are members of either al Qaeda or ISIS.

The Turks have refused to allow American planes to use the large American air base in Turkey to launch missions into Syria, so at the moment all American strikes have to come from the Persian Gulf, many hundreds of miles further away.  The Turks just keep calling for the no-fly zone while saying no to the use of the bases in their country.

The Washington Post is now reporting on a story from unnamed high American officials who say that a deal with Turkey is imminent.  Under that deal, the USA will be able to use the base in Turkey for attacks in Syria.  This is a big deal.  The rest of the deal, however, is that America will declare a no-fly zone (under another name, of course) and will prevent all air flights in an area along the border between Turkey and Syria.  In order to get better coordination between air and ground forces and to better find targets on the ground, Turkish special forces troops will enter the area in Syria and provide intelligence and targeting help.

The article in the Post is a classic trial balloon.  The story has been released on background to gauge the reaction of the public and the DC establishment to the no-fly zone.  Apparently, Obama decided that the need to use the Turkish base was too great to ignore, so he is backtracking on announced policy.  Of course, in typical Obama fashion, they call it something other than a "no-fly" zone so that they can claim that policy has not changed.  In truth, however, this proposal would mostly hinder the forces loyal to Assad while helping the al Qaeda and other rebel forces in northern Syria.  America may actually be helping protect al Qaeda in one area so that we can better hit ISIS in other areas. 




 

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