This morning, the New York Times has a huge map on the front page showing how 2014 was the hottest year "in recorded history". That's right; the Times article launches a full assault on the story that there has been no warming for the last 18 years. After all, how can warming have stopped when we just ended the hottest year ever?
Let's examine this for a moment. Here are four key questions that you need to understand before a rational view of the Times article is possible.
1. Was 2014 the hottest year of the last hundred?
2. Was the Earth hotter in 2014 than it was a thousand years ago?
3. Over the last 10,000 years, where does 2014 rank on the scale of "hotness"?
4. Finally, what is "recorded history" when it comes to global temperature measurements used by the Time?
Here we go: let's start with the first question. Whether or not 2014 was the hottest year of the last century depends on how you measure temperature. The Times article relies on NASA and NOAA measurements of surface temperatures. These measurements show 2014 to be the same as two earlier years. Last year was actually 0.01degrees warmer than the other two, but that difference is not statistically significant. More important, however, the data for most of the first half of the last century was "adjusted" by the scientists. We know that the "adjustment" lowered the temperatures from earlier in the century, but we have never been given a reason why that is (aside from making it low colder then). When no adjustment is added, the warmest year of the last 100 was during the 1930s. On top of this come the other issue. If you use atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite, 2014 was nowhere near the warmest recent year. Indeed, these temperature readings show that the temperatures have remained basically flat for the last 18 years. Remember, the weather satellites that read temperatures were launched in part to get more accurate readings on the effects of global warming. Instead, these super accurate readings show that warming has stopped.
So even if 2014 was not the warmest year ever, was it much warmer last year than it was 1000 years ago? The answer is a resounding NO! The year 1014 was in the middle of what is known as the medieval warm period which lasted a few hundred years. During that time, the Earth was significantly warmed than it is now. Now let's be clear about one important thing; there are not a great deal of temperature readings from that era. Scientists have used temperature indicators from tree rings and ice cores taken all over the world to come up with a picture of the global climate 1000 years ago. This data, however, makes clear that the Earth was warmer a millennium ago.
And what about the last 10,000 years? Using the ice cores, tree rings and other data sources, scientists have determined that roughly 90% of the time during that period the Earth was warmer than it was in 2014. The reality is that from the fifteenth century to the start of the nineteenth century, Earth went through a mini-ice age. Temperatures during that period were much lower than average. Since the start of the 19th century, the world has been gradually warming. The warming of the last fifty years seems to be just a part of that process rather than a response to increased carbon dioxide.
So how can the Times call 2014 the hottest year in "recorded history"? The answer is the for the Times and the studies that they cite, recorded history began around 1880, when significant numbers of temperature readings became available. Even for the period since that year, the studies had to "adjust" the earlier data to make 2014 the warmest, but the truth is that calling 2014 the hottest year ever is like calling the winner of the Miss Rhode Island beauty pageant the most beautiful woman in the world without ever considering the billions of women who live outside of that state.
Think what all this means. We are told that the polar bear is about to become extinct because temperatures will rise and destroy its habitat. The bear has been around for much more than 10,000 years, however. During most of that time, the Earth was warmer, but polar bears survived. We are told that hurricanes will be worse due to warmer temperatures, but 1000 years ago, there were warmer temperatures and there is no record of there being worse storms then. Most important, we are told that man is responsible for runaway warming of the Earth, but right now the world is cooler than it has been for 90% of the last 10,000 years, temperatures that were NOT influenced by mankind.
The idea that man is responsible for the temperature of the globe is nothing less than hubris. We are all too insignificant to affect the climate in any material way. Five hundred years ago, the world community reacted in horror to the suggestion that the Earth was not the center of the universe. Earth cannot orbit the Sun; we are just too important for that to be true. But it is true. We may consider ourselves the center of the universe, but we are not. We may consider ourselves in control of the world's weather, but we are not. We are here for the ride. We all need to get over ourselves and enjoy the ride while we can.
Let's examine this for a moment. Here are four key questions that you need to understand before a rational view of the Times article is possible.
1. Was 2014 the hottest year of the last hundred?
2. Was the Earth hotter in 2014 than it was a thousand years ago?
3. Over the last 10,000 years, where does 2014 rank on the scale of "hotness"?
4. Finally, what is "recorded history" when it comes to global temperature measurements used by the Time?
Here we go: let's start with the first question. Whether or not 2014 was the hottest year of the last century depends on how you measure temperature. The Times article relies on NASA and NOAA measurements of surface temperatures. These measurements show 2014 to be the same as two earlier years. Last year was actually 0.01degrees warmer than the other two, but that difference is not statistically significant. More important, however, the data for most of the first half of the last century was "adjusted" by the scientists. We know that the "adjustment" lowered the temperatures from earlier in the century, but we have never been given a reason why that is (aside from making it low colder then). When no adjustment is added, the warmest year of the last 100 was during the 1930s. On top of this come the other issue. If you use atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite, 2014 was nowhere near the warmest recent year. Indeed, these temperature readings show that the temperatures have remained basically flat for the last 18 years. Remember, the weather satellites that read temperatures were launched in part to get more accurate readings on the effects of global warming. Instead, these super accurate readings show that warming has stopped.
So even if 2014 was not the warmest year ever, was it much warmer last year than it was 1000 years ago? The answer is a resounding NO! The year 1014 was in the middle of what is known as the medieval warm period which lasted a few hundred years. During that time, the Earth was significantly warmed than it is now. Now let's be clear about one important thing; there are not a great deal of temperature readings from that era. Scientists have used temperature indicators from tree rings and ice cores taken all over the world to come up with a picture of the global climate 1000 years ago. This data, however, makes clear that the Earth was warmer a millennium ago.
And what about the last 10,000 years? Using the ice cores, tree rings and other data sources, scientists have determined that roughly 90% of the time during that period the Earth was warmer than it was in 2014. The reality is that from the fifteenth century to the start of the nineteenth century, Earth went through a mini-ice age. Temperatures during that period were much lower than average. Since the start of the 19th century, the world has been gradually warming. The warming of the last fifty years seems to be just a part of that process rather than a response to increased carbon dioxide.
So how can the Times call 2014 the hottest year in "recorded history"? The answer is the for the Times and the studies that they cite, recorded history began around 1880, when significant numbers of temperature readings became available. Even for the period since that year, the studies had to "adjust" the earlier data to make 2014 the warmest, but the truth is that calling 2014 the hottest year ever is like calling the winner of the Miss Rhode Island beauty pageant the most beautiful woman in the world without ever considering the billions of women who live outside of that state.
Think what all this means. We are told that the polar bear is about to become extinct because temperatures will rise and destroy its habitat. The bear has been around for much more than 10,000 years, however. During most of that time, the Earth was warmer, but polar bears survived. We are told that hurricanes will be worse due to warmer temperatures, but 1000 years ago, there were warmer temperatures and there is no record of there being worse storms then. Most important, we are told that man is responsible for runaway warming of the Earth, but right now the world is cooler than it has been for 90% of the last 10,000 years, temperatures that were NOT influenced by mankind.
The idea that man is responsible for the temperature of the globe is nothing less than hubris. We are all too insignificant to affect the climate in any material way. Five hundred years ago, the world community reacted in horror to the suggestion that the Earth was not the center of the universe. Earth cannot orbit the Sun; we are just too important for that to be true. But it is true. We may consider ourselves the center of the universe, but we are not. We may consider ourselves in control of the world's weather, but we are not. We are here for the ride. We all need to get over ourselves and enjoy the ride while we can.
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