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Sunday, January 11, 2015

Proving Too Much

Broken Windows Policing is a concept that came into vogue in New York City with the first term of mayor Rudi Giuliani.  The idea is a simple one:  police should enforce all of the minor laws like playing music too loudly on the street or jumping turnstiles on the subway in order to improve the quality of life, make clear that the city was not out of control and, most important, to catch criminals.  It worked well.  For example, New York police discovered that a large portion of the people arrested for jumping turnstiles had outstanding arrest warrants for other crimes.  By stopping these people for minor crimes like avoiding the subway fare, the police took hundreds and then thousands of wanted criminal off the streets.  Since the institution of Broken Windows Policing major crime in New York City has fallen dramatically.  There are many reasons for that drop, but one reason is certainly Broken Windows Policing.

In the new ultra-liberal world of New York City politics, mayor DeBlasio is being called upon to end Broken Windows Policing.  The claim is that it has no effect on major crime and that it is racist.  It is an amazing argument that if a police officer sees someone jump a subway turnstile and arrests him or her, that is racist.  By the same token, these folks would also say that arresting an African American for murder would be racist even if the policeman saw the murder committed.  The argument is ludicrous. 

We are now in the middle of a new argument about the efficacy of Broken Windows Policing, however.  During the last two weeks, New York City police have greatly reduced the number of summonses that they have issued and have also reduced arrests for minor crimes.  This "slowdown" is in protest of DeBlasio's attacks on the police after the Eric Garner grand jury decision.  The opponents of Broken Windows Policing, however, have jumped to point out that the number of minor arrests have fallen but the crime rate overall has been unaffected.  On the surface, their argument sounds good, but on examination, it is completely faulty.  The result of Broken Windows Policing is that, over time, it gets criminals off the streets and makes the city safer.  It is not something that has an effect in one or two weeks, especially during January when it is twenty degrees outside and most folks are off the streets anyway.  If the cops stop making minor arrests and issuing summonses for six months, then there would be some data available from which one could judge the effect of the change.  Two weeks, however, is silly.  It is the rough equivalent of walking outside your house one day at 9:45 a.m. only to find it raining and then concluding that it rains every day at that time.



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