The YNET site is reporting that there will be a meeting between Israeli prime minister Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority president Abbas in October to restart negotiations. The meeting is to be held in Moscow under the aegis of Russian president Putin. The news is not reported anywhere else that I can find. I wonder if it is true or if it is just another of those rumors that pop up in the Israeli media from time to time and get reported as facts. It would be an intriguing bit of news if true for a number of reasons.
First, Russia has never been a serious participant in the attempt to end the Arab/Israeli conflict in the past. Holding the talks in Moscow would be a clear indication of just how much Moscow's involvement in the Middle East has increased in the last few years. For one thing, the relationship between Israel and Russia has improved greatly in the last year. Netanyahu has met with Putin four times in twelve months. That's much more frequent than meeting between Netanyahu and president Obama.
Second, the meeting would be an acknowledgement of the importance of Egypt in the region's peace efforts. Just a short time ago, the Egyptian government said that the Israelis and Palestinians ought to meet and suggested Moscow as the place for such a meeting. That, by itself, is another sign of the new Russian influence in the area. Remember, in the 1970s, Egypt expelled all of its Russian advisors and for the next 35 years, the Russians were kept out of Egypt. Since president Sisi of Egypt took office, however, he has warmed to the Russians after Obama had the US take a hostile position to his role at the head of the Egyptian government.
Third, the meeting is also an indication of Russia trying to ingratiate itself among the Sunni Arabs of the region. Russia already has close ties with Iran which is the Shiite power in the region. Russian involvement with the greatest Sunni power, Egypt, will put Moscow on good term with both sides of the Sunni/Shiite divide. Without a doubt, the Iranians will not be happy to see Russia promoting peace between Israel and the Palestinians. If there really is such a meeting, there will surely be fallout in Teheran.
It is highly unlikely that the meeting in Moscow will result in any deal being struck between the two sides. Abbas is not in a position to make peace. His Fatah party is likely to be ousted in many of the local elections coming this fall in cities on the West Bank. The expected victor is Hamas, the terrorist group that is unalterably opposed to any deal with Israel. Abbas turned down in the past offers that gave him at least 99% of what he wanted. Nothing has changed that.
So why would there be peace negotiations if there is really no chance that a deal can be structured? Just think of what the meeting offers. For Putin, it is a demonstration of Russia's new influence in the area and also of the loss by the USA of a leadership role there. Egypt, Israel and even the Palestinians get to show the USA that there can be a major move in the region without any US involvement. It tells the USA that if it wants to keep Egypt and Israel as allies, it will have to stop the constant negative barrages launched at those countries. Israeli leader Netanyahu gets to show a step towards peace that ought to silence critics in Europe and the USA. Abbas gets to show his people that he is their representative who is recognized by the world, thereby strengthening his position.
On the other hand, this may all be just a rumor. We will have to wait and see.
First, Russia has never been a serious participant in the attempt to end the Arab/Israeli conflict in the past. Holding the talks in Moscow would be a clear indication of just how much Moscow's involvement in the Middle East has increased in the last few years. For one thing, the relationship between Israel and Russia has improved greatly in the last year. Netanyahu has met with Putin four times in twelve months. That's much more frequent than meeting between Netanyahu and president Obama.
Second, the meeting would be an acknowledgement of the importance of Egypt in the region's peace efforts. Just a short time ago, the Egyptian government said that the Israelis and Palestinians ought to meet and suggested Moscow as the place for such a meeting. That, by itself, is another sign of the new Russian influence in the area. Remember, in the 1970s, Egypt expelled all of its Russian advisors and for the next 35 years, the Russians were kept out of Egypt. Since president Sisi of Egypt took office, however, he has warmed to the Russians after Obama had the US take a hostile position to his role at the head of the Egyptian government.
Third, the meeting is also an indication of Russia trying to ingratiate itself among the Sunni Arabs of the region. Russia already has close ties with Iran which is the Shiite power in the region. Russian involvement with the greatest Sunni power, Egypt, will put Moscow on good term with both sides of the Sunni/Shiite divide. Without a doubt, the Iranians will not be happy to see Russia promoting peace between Israel and the Palestinians. If there really is such a meeting, there will surely be fallout in Teheran.
It is highly unlikely that the meeting in Moscow will result in any deal being struck between the two sides. Abbas is not in a position to make peace. His Fatah party is likely to be ousted in many of the local elections coming this fall in cities on the West Bank. The expected victor is Hamas, the terrorist group that is unalterably opposed to any deal with Israel. Abbas turned down in the past offers that gave him at least 99% of what he wanted. Nothing has changed that.
So why would there be peace negotiations if there is really no chance that a deal can be structured? Just think of what the meeting offers. For Putin, it is a demonstration of Russia's new influence in the area and also of the loss by the USA of a leadership role there. Egypt, Israel and even the Palestinians get to show the USA that there can be a major move in the region without any US involvement. It tells the USA that if it wants to keep Egypt and Israel as allies, it will have to stop the constant negative barrages launched at those countries. Israeli leader Netanyahu gets to show a step towards peace that ought to silence critics in Europe and the USA. Abbas gets to show his people that he is their representative who is recognized by the world, thereby strengthening his position.
On the other hand, this may all be just a rumor. We will have to wait and see.
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