In the last two days, Kurdish positions in northern Syria have been bombed by Russian jets as well as by planes of the Syrian Assad forces. This is something relatively new. The people of the northeastern portion of Syria are mainly Kurdish. They have fought successfully against the onslaught from ISIS. Indeed, since the Kurds held off ISIS at Kobane months ago, the Kurdish peshmerga forces have been advancing against the terrorists. At this point, the Kurds control the eastern two thirds of the border between Syria and Turkey. ISIS has been pushed back and then pushed back again by the Kurds. In one of the few instances where the USA has actually supported troops on the ground, we have been helping the Kurds with limited air power and some weapons and supplies. We have also warned both the Russians and the Assad forces to stay away from fighting with the Kurds. Despite that, the Russians and the Assad forces are now hitting the Kurds in a major way. It is a direct slap in the face to the USA and president Obama.
Why is this happening? Let's consider the situation.
1. First of all, the Russians and Vladimir Putin love to stick it to the USA and Obama. Putin would never send Russian planes to bomb US forces in the region, but hitting the Kurds is a free shot at the USA. Putin understands that Obama will not respond to these attacks; Putin knows Obama's typical response is to pretend nothing happened and then to "study" the matter if forced to confront it. This sort of weak response by the USA reinforces the belief of America's allies in the region that they are on their own. In other words, Obama's weakness is projected to be America's weakness. Our allies understand that they have to take other steps to protect themselves.
2. Second, Turkey hates the Kurds. One-quarter of all the citizens of Turkey are Kurdish, and the Kurds in the region have long wanted to have their own state. The Turkish government sees the Kurdish desire for their own state as an existential threat to Turkey. The Turkish dictator/president Erdogan was at the throat of Putin and the Russians until recently. Then, just last week, Putin and Erdogan held a cordial meeting at which they proclaimed friendship and peace. Then the next week, Russia is suddenly attacking the people that Turkey fears much more than ISIS. It's not a coincidence. The Turks get to watch the Kurdish power get degraded. The Russians get to forge a bond with Turkey and move Turkey away from the USA. They also get to stick their finger in the eye of the USA. The bond between the Kurds and the USA is also weakened as the Kurds come to realize that after the Russians and the Assad forces bomb their positions, there is no response from America.
3. Assad once again gets to show the USA that he doesn't care what our president has to say. This fosters the perception that the USA is weak. It helps Assad main patron, Iran, assert its authority in the region. It also help Assad's benefactors in Moscow.
There are plenty of things that the USA could do to change the calculus here. Just imagine what would happen if forces in the Kurdish area had ground to air missiles that shot down attacking planes. If Putin and Assad lost a few planes, they would quickly get the message and back off.
There is no point in discussing that strategy,though. It is unlikely that Obama will choose to take any step during the election (or even after that). It might interfere with his tee time.
Why is this happening? Let's consider the situation.
1. First of all, the Russians and Vladimir Putin love to stick it to the USA and Obama. Putin would never send Russian planes to bomb US forces in the region, but hitting the Kurds is a free shot at the USA. Putin understands that Obama will not respond to these attacks; Putin knows Obama's typical response is to pretend nothing happened and then to "study" the matter if forced to confront it. This sort of weak response by the USA reinforces the belief of America's allies in the region that they are on their own. In other words, Obama's weakness is projected to be America's weakness. Our allies understand that they have to take other steps to protect themselves.
2. Second, Turkey hates the Kurds. One-quarter of all the citizens of Turkey are Kurdish, and the Kurds in the region have long wanted to have their own state. The Turkish government sees the Kurdish desire for their own state as an existential threat to Turkey. The Turkish dictator/president Erdogan was at the throat of Putin and the Russians until recently. Then, just last week, Putin and Erdogan held a cordial meeting at which they proclaimed friendship and peace. Then the next week, Russia is suddenly attacking the people that Turkey fears much more than ISIS. It's not a coincidence. The Turks get to watch the Kurdish power get degraded. The Russians get to forge a bond with Turkey and move Turkey away from the USA. They also get to stick their finger in the eye of the USA. The bond between the Kurds and the USA is also weakened as the Kurds come to realize that after the Russians and the Assad forces bomb their positions, there is no response from America.
3. Assad once again gets to show the USA that he doesn't care what our president has to say. This fosters the perception that the USA is weak. It helps Assad main patron, Iran, assert its authority in the region. It also help Assad's benefactors in Moscow.
There are plenty of things that the USA could do to change the calculus here. Just imagine what would happen if forces in the Kurdish area had ground to air missiles that shot down attacking planes. If Putin and Assad lost a few planes, they would quickly get the message and back off.
There is no point in discussing that strategy,though. It is unlikely that Obama will choose to take any step during the election (or even after that). It might interfere with his tee time.
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