The news today includes the firing of multiple missiles at Israel from Gaza. One of the missiles landed in the town of Sderot which is almost on the border itself. Fortunately, no one was hurt from the missile attack. In response, the Israelis fired back at Gaza at two Hamas installations. There is no indication of casualties there either.
There has been a long period of calm on the Gaza-Israel border. In fact, the restrictions on various types of supplies entering Gaza have been relaxed of late so that conditions could have been improving inside that territory. So why now are missiles being launched at Israel after months and months of calm? The answer is not all that difficult to discern. It has to do with Syria, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia as well as with the local elections. Throw Russia into the mix and you have a total picture.
Let's back up for this explanation and go point by point:
1. In the last year, Israel has been drawing closer to the various Sunni Arab states that are worried about Iran and which feel abandoned by president Obama. There are not many public indications of cooperation between Israel on the one hand and Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan on the other hand. Nevertheless, there is no question that such cooperation has been increasing week after week.
2. Despite the almost secret cooperation, it remains a problem among the Moslems of the Middle East for a country to be seen as a friend of Israel. It is a long term process for such views to change. If we get to the point at which the average person in Egypt or Saudi Arabia no longer thinks of Israel as a permanent enemy, the entire power structure of the Middle East could change. Iran could be isolated and the Shiite ruled countries like Syria and Iraq might have problems as well. Just imagine a formal alliance between the Saudis and the Israelis and you can see the problem for Iran. For example, if Israeli planes could be based in northeast Saudi Arabia, they could hit Iranian nuclear program targets with relative ease.
3. Missiles fired from Gaza and the inevitable response from Israel gets portrayed in the media as misdeeds by the Israelis. In the Middle Eastern media, it is Israel that is at fault if it shoots back at those who fire missiles at it. Each exchange of fire makes it that much harder for there to be public cooperation against Iran.
4. Exchanges of fire between Gaza and Israel also embarrass Turkey which has renewed its relations with Israel in just the last week. Turkish president Erdogan cut ties with Israel over issues relating to Gaza. Putting Gaza back on the front page puts pressure on Erdogan.
5. Meanwhile, there are soon to be local elections for Palestinians in the West Bank. Firing from Gaza also shows that Hamas is still leading the fight against the Israelis. If anyone gets killed in the cross fire, so be it; Hamas will get more votes.
6. Then there's the Assad connection. In the last week, Assad forces and even the Russians bombed Kurdish positions in Syria and put US troops in danger. Assad has also continued to use chemical weapons and there should be a UN report out this week confirming that war crime. What better way to distract attention from these events and prevent any calls for an American response than to heat up the border between Gaza and Israel. Assad certainly does not have a close ally in Hamas, but there are no doubt people in Gaza who would still act on Assad's behalf (especially if the price were right.)
There is also the possibility that what happened today is just the work of a few crazies who had some missiles. If there are more missiles fired, we will know that more is happening than just some lone wolf missile firer. It won't take long; if there are more shots, it will be this week.
There has been a long period of calm on the Gaza-Israel border. In fact, the restrictions on various types of supplies entering Gaza have been relaxed of late so that conditions could have been improving inside that territory. So why now are missiles being launched at Israel after months and months of calm? The answer is not all that difficult to discern. It has to do with Syria, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia as well as with the local elections. Throw Russia into the mix and you have a total picture.
Let's back up for this explanation and go point by point:
1. In the last year, Israel has been drawing closer to the various Sunni Arab states that are worried about Iran and which feel abandoned by president Obama. There are not many public indications of cooperation between Israel on the one hand and Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan on the other hand. Nevertheless, there is no question that such cooperation has been increasing week after week.
2. Despite the almost secret cooperation, it remains a problem among the Moslems of the Middle East for a country to be seen as a friend of Israel. It is a long term process for such views to change. If we get to the point at which the average person in Egypt or Saudi Arabia no longer thinks of Israel as a permanent enemy, the entire power structure of the Middle East could change. Iran could be isolated and the Shiite ruled countries like Syria and Iraq might have problems as well. Just imagine a formal alliance between the Saudis and the Israelis and you can see the problem for Iran. For example, if Israeli planes could be based in northeast Saudi Arabia, they could hit Iranian nuclear program targets with relative ease.
3. Missiles fired from Gaza and the inevitable response from Israel gets portrayed in the media as misdeeds by the Israelis. In the Middle Eastern media, it is Israel that is at fault if it shoots back at those who fire missiles at it. Each exchange of fire makes it that much harder for there to be public cooperation against Iran.
4. Exchanges of fire between Gaza and Israel also embarrass Turkey which has renewed its relations with Israel in just the last week. Turkish president Erdogan cut ties with Israel over issues relating to Gaza. Putting Gaza back on the front page puts pressure on Erdogan.
5. Meanwhile, there are soon to be local elections for Palestinians in the West Bank. Firing from Gaza also shows that Hamas is still leading the fight against the Israelis. If anyone gets killed in the cross fire, so be it; Hamas will get more votes.
6. Then there's the Assad connection. In the last week, Assad forces and even the Russians bombed Kurdish positions in Syria and put US troops in danger. Assad has also continued to use chemical weapons and there should be a UN report out this week confirming that war crime. What better way to distract attention from these events and prevent any calls for an American response than to heat up the border between Gaza and Israel. Assad certainly does not have a close ally in Hamas, but there are no doubt people in Gaza who would still act on Assad's behalf (especially if the price were right.)
There is also the possibility that what happened today is just the work of a few crazies who had some missiles. If there are more missiles fired, we will know that more is happening than just some lone wolf missile firer. It won't take long; if there are more shots, it will be this week.
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