The Russian army has roughly 40,000 men stationed in new positions all along the border between Ukraine and Russia. The soldiers are heavily armed and supported by aircraft according to reports in the British press. What does this mean?
The most likely answer is that Putin is planning to take more of the Ukraine, indeed maybe the entire country. That sort of invasion will put president Obama and the Clinton/Trump duo to the test. Almost certainly, Obama will do nothing but talk. He will talk about the condemnation of Russia by the world community and tell us that Russia is on the wrong side of history. Meanwhile, Russian troops will approach Kiev and Ukrainians will die. Clinton will no doubt blame the invasion on Trump; after all, Trump's campaign chair headed a company that did work for the former president of Ukraine, so he must be to blame, right? Clinton will also talk about the need for a strong response but will give no proposal different from what Obama does (nothing). Trump will also talk about the need for a more muscular response, but he too will make clear that the USA is not going to war to defend Ukraine.
The end result will be a strengthened Russia, a diminished Ukraine and a diminished USA. NATO allies will be worried about what Putin will do next. The world will be that much closer to full scale war. Cooperation with Russia in Syria will end. Putin will find a reason to interrupt energy supplies to Europe, just temporarily, but enough to make the meaning clear: come after Russia and you lose your oil and gas.
None of this is good.
The most likely answer is that Putin is planning to take more of the Ukraine, indeed maybe the entire country. That sort of invasion will put president Obama and the Clinton/Trump duo to the test. Almost certainly, Obama will do nothing but talk. He will talk about the condemnation of Russia by the world community and tell us that Russia is on the wrong side of history. Meanwhile, Russian troops will approach Kiev and Ukrainians will die. Clinton will no doubt blame the invasion on Trump; after all, Trump's campaign chair headed a company that did work for the former president of Ukraine, so he must be to blame, right? Clinton will also talk about the need for a strong response but will give no proposal different from what Obama does (nothing). Trump will also talk about the need for a more muscular response, but he too will make clear that the USA is not going to war to defend Ukraine.
The end result will be a strengthened Russia, a diminished Ukraine and a diminished USA. NATO allies will be worried about what Putin will do next. The world will be that much closer to full scale war. Cooperation with Russia in Syria will end. Putin will find a reason to interrupt energy supplies to Europe, just temporarily, but enough to make the meaning clear: come after Russia and you lose your oil and gas.
None of this is good.
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