Don't ponder the question, but just think about who is ahead and by how much in the Clinton/Trump race for the presidency. If you're like most people, your immediate reaction is this: Clinton has pulled into a large lead since the conventions ended. You also think that Donald Trump's campaign is melting down as Hillary continues to hammer him.
Now let's talk about the reality as demonstrated by the polls. If you look at the Real Clear Politics average of recent four-way polls, Clinton is ahead by 6%. The ones included to get the average are all polls taken in August. There's a clear trend in those polls, however. During the first week of the month which was right after the end of the Democrat convention, Hillary had her bounce in the polls. The polls taken during that week showed her ahead by an average of 9% according to Real Clear Politics. (Those are five polls taken entirely during the period from August 1 to August 7). Polls taken during the seven days ending yesterday show Hillary up by an average of 4%. The two most recent polls show Hillary up by 3%. Those are the numbers; Hillary does not have a large lead. If anything, her lead is evaporating.
Nevertheless, the initial reaction from most people about the current status of the race is the one that the media wants you to have. If you support Trump and think he is melting down, you are much more likely to lose interest in the race and eventually not vote. It's just another way that the media tries to help Clinton.
In reality, this race is far from over. It would not take much for Trump to take the lead again. There can be all sorts of events in the coming weeks that could shift the race either way. Then there are the debates. Most likely, those match ups will be critical in determining who wins in November.
One last note: before I get emails complaining about my use of four way polls that include Johnson and Stein rather than just the head to head match ups between Trump and Clinton, let me tell you that the RCP average in two way polls has Clinton ahead by 5.8%; the numbers during the first week of August for such polls showed Clinton ahead by 11%; and the polls taken during the week ending yesterday showed Hillary up by 4%. In other words, they are very similar to the four way figures. Since Johnson and Stein will be on the ballot in most states, however, it seems more appropriate to use the four way figures.
Now let's talk about the reality as demonstrated by the polls. If you look at the Real Clear Politics average of recent four-way polls, Clinton is ahead by 6%. The ones included to get the average are all polls taken in August. There's a clear trend in those polls, however. During the first week of the month which was right after the end of the Democrat convention, Hillary had her bounce in the polls. The polls taken during that week showed her ahead by an average of 9% according to Real Clear Politics. (Those are five polls taken entirely during the period from August 1 to August 7). Polls taken during the seven days ending yesterday show Hillary up by an average of 4%. The two most recent polls show Hillary up by 3%. Those are the numbers; Hillary does not have a large lead. If anything, her lead is evaporating.
Nevertheless, the initial reaction from most people about the current status of the race is the one that the media wants you to have. If you support Trump and think he is melting down, you are much more likely to lose interest in the race and eventually not vote. It's just another way that the media tries to help Clinton.
In reality, this race is far from over. It would not take much for Trump to take the lead again. There can be all sorts of events in the coming weeks that could shift the race either way. Then there are the debates. Most likely, those match ups will be critical in determining who wins in November.
One last note: before I get emails complaining about my use of four way polls that include Johnson and Stein rather than just the head to head match ups between Trump and Clinton, let me tell you that the RCP average in two way polls has Clinton ahead by 5.8%; the numbers during the first week of August for such polls showed Clinton ahead by 11%; and the polls taken during the week ending yesterday showed Hillary up by 4%. In other words, they are very similar to the four way figures. Since Johnson and Stein will be on the ballot in most states, however, it seems more appropriate to use the four way figures.
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