There's a major Quinipiac poll out today of voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. I say "major" because over 1000 likely voters were surveyed in each state. In a match between Clinton and Trump, all three states are essentially tied. Trump leads by 4% in Ohio and Clinton by 1% in each of Florida and Pennsylvania. The poll was taken between April 26 and May 8.
For the last few months and in particular the last few weeks, we have been bombarded by know-it-all pundits telling us that Trump will be crushed by Clinton in the general election. Despite these pronouncements, the polls have tightened and some now show Trump in the lead. Now we have detailed polls in key states that confirm just how close the race has become. But the pundits will tell us that Hillary has a massive lead among minority voters. This poll confirms that lead, but it also says the race is essentially tied. The pundits will tell us that Hillary leads among women. This poll confirms that, but it also says the race is essentially tied. Now consider this: right now, there are a great many Republicans who are angry that Trump won. That group will get smaller and smaller however as things calm down on the GOP side. Those people will mostly return to vote Republican as normally happens after a contentious fight for the nomination. This poll was taken half while the Cruz/Trump fight was at its worst and half after Trump won. In a month, there will likely be a shift or 3-5% in the numbers towards Trump just because the intra-party fight is over. There may also be some Democrats who support Sanders but who stayed away from Hillary for similar reasons. The numbers of such voters among Democrats, however, certainly seems less than it is among Republicans.
Now consider this additional data: the enthusiasm level among Trump supporters is substantially higher than among Clinton supporters. In other words, Hillary may have a lopsided lead among African Americans, but how many of them will actually come out and vote in November. Surely, that turnout won't rival the one that Obama got. If the black vote goes back to more normal turnout numbers that were the norm in non-Obama elections, it cuts Hillary's national vote by between one and one and a half percentage points. Similarly, Hillary leads Trump among younger voters. Remember, however, that young Democrats reject Hillary and choose Sanders by margins of roughly three to one. How many young people will actually come out an vote for a woman they clearly don't like?
Put all this together and you find that Hillary is in trouble. Right now she ought to be a the height of her popularity. Trump has not gone on the attack against her. Sanders has treated her with kid gloves. Even the media has stayed away from any major attacks. On the other side, Trump has been hit with every attack conceivable and his party has yet to really come together after the nomination contest. But the polls in the key swing states are still tied. As I said, Hillary is in trouble.
For the last few months and in particular the last few weeks, we have been bombarded by know-it-all pundits telling us that Trump will be crushed by Clinton in the general election. Despite these pronouncements, the polls have tightened and some now show Trump in the lead. Now we have detailed polls in key states that confirm just how close the race has become. But the pundits will tell us that Hillary has a massive lead among minority voters. This poll confirms that lead, but it also says the race is essentially tied. The pundits will tell us that Hillary leads among women. This poll confirms that, but it also says the race is essentially tied. Now consider this: right now, there are a great many Republicans who are angry that Trump won. That group will get smaller and smaller however as things calm down on the GOP side. Those people will mostly return to vote Republican as normally happens after a contentious fight for the nomination. This poll was taken half while the Cruz/Trump fight was at its worst and half after Trump won. In a month, there will likely be a shift or 3-5% in the numbers towards Trump just because the intra-party fight is over. There may also be some Democrats who support Sanders but who stayed away from Hillary for similar reasons. The numbers of such voters among Democrats, however, certainly seems less than it is among Republicans.
Now consider this additional data: the enthusiasm level among Trump supporters is substantially higher than among Clinton supporters. In other words, Hillary may have a lopsided lead among African Americans, but how many of them will actually come out and vote in November. Surely, that turnout won't rival the one that Obama got. If the black vote goes back to more normal turnout numbers that were the norm in non-Obama elections, it cuts Hillary's national vote by between one and one and a half percentage points. Similarly, Hillary leads Trump among younger voters. Remember, however, that young Democrats reject Hillary and choose Sanders by margins of roughly three to one. How many young people will actually come out an vote for a woman they clearly don't like?
Put all this together and you find that Hillary is in trouble. Right now she ought to be a the height of her popularity. Trump has not gone on the attack against her. Sanders has treated her with kid gloves. Even the media has stayed away from any major attacks. On the other side, Trump has been hit with every attack conceivable and his party has yet to really come together after the nomination contest. But the polls in the key swing states are still tied. As I said, Hillary is in trouble.
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