The entire world of political pundits is busy today predicting that Donald Trump won't (or will) win in November. To say that it's a bit early to make such predictions is an understatement. No one knows for certain. There are a bunch of items that will be controlling.
The first item is the state of the economy. Right now, it's not good. The growth of the GDP has stalled. There are indications from the latest ADP figures that job growth is also stalling. If America moves into a full fledged recession, Trump will be almost unbeatable. There are just too many people who will not vote for Hillary and her "more of the same" economic plans if those same plans have pushed us into a recession. That will remain true no matter what Hillary says about being a woman or on immigration or really anything else.
The second item is whether or not we suffer another big terrorist attack. Under George Bush, the USA got hit on 9-11 when no one suspected that we were a real target. After the Bush and his administration kept us safe from further terror attacks. Once Obama took office, the attacks started. First we had events like the Fort Hood massacre in which more than a dozen soldiers died. Obama tried to cover that up by calling the shooting workplace violence rather than a terror attack, but Americans understood what really happened. Then we had a series of further attacks with the most recent big one being in San Bernardino. If we get hit again, millions of people will abandon Hillary (who here too wants to continue Obama's policies) for the more muscular Trump plans.
The third item is how well the fight against ISIS is faring. If Obama keeps sending more and more troops to the Middle East with Hillary's support, there are many who will move away from her. If Hillary opposes Obama on such moves, there are others who will move away from her. She's caught in the middle.
The fourth item is whether there is violence during the campaign and how it is perceived. The recent displays of violence in California by paid demonstrators hired by the left will not help Clinton. If the demonstrations seem real and the violence unintentional or generated by Trump supporters, Hillary may be helped. On the other hand, if the violence seems to come from the left or from illegal aliens carrying signs like "Make America Mexico Again" (as was seen recently), it will help Trump. It won't get him more Hispanic votes, but it will swing a great many others away from Hillary.
The fifth item is how well things are going with Russia, China, Libya, Syria and other world problem areas. Anywhere that has Hillary's fingerprints on them that go in a bad direction will be a problem for Hillary. Anything that goes well will be claimed by Obama.
The last item is mistakes by the candidates. Trump frequently says outrageous things or takes positions that the media and the pundits hate. That won't be enough to derail him. If he makes a truly boneheaded mistake, however, it could be disastrous for him. Similarly, if Hillary does something like explain again how she and Bill were flat broke when they left the White House, it may destroy her candidacy. My guess is that by now, both candidates have made it to the point beyond which they are past such mistakes.
And the last item is the FBI. It's a lose-lose for Hillary. If she gets indicted or even recommended for indictment, it's all over for her. On the other hand, if she isn't indicted, then there will undoubtedly be "leaks" that explain that Obama demanded that she get special privileges from the FBI.
There are other things that will affect the results, but if you know how the six above turn out, it will be pretty clear who will win.
The first item is the state of the economy. Right now, it's not good. The growth of the GDP has stalled. There are indications from the latest ADP figures that job growth is also stalling. If America moves into a full fledged recession, Trump will be almost unbeatable. There are just too many people who will not vote for Hillary and her "more of the same" economic plans if those same plans have pushed us into a recession. That will remain true no matter what Hillary says about being a woman or on immigration or really anything else.
The second item is whether or not we suffer another big terrorist attack. Under George Bush, the USA got hit on 9-11 when no one suspected that we were a real target. After the Bush and his administration kept us safe from further terror attacks. Once Obama took office, the attacks started. First we had events like the Fort Hood massacre in which more than a dozen soldiers died. Obama tried to cover that up by calling the shooting workplace violence rather than a terror attack, but Americans understood what really happened. Then we had a series of further attacks with the most recent big one being in San Bernardino. If we get hit again, millions of people will abandon Hillary (who here too wants to continue Obama's policies) for the more muscular Trump plans.
The third item is how well the fight against ISIS is faring. If Obama keeps sending more and more troops to the Middle East with Hillary's support, there are many who will move away from her. If Hillary opposes Obama on such moves, there are others who will move away from her. She's caught in the middle.
The fourth item is whether there is violence during the campaign and how it is perceived. The recent displays of violence in California by paid demonstrators hired by the left will not help Clinton. If the demonstrations seem real and the violence unintentional or generated by Trump supporters, Hillary may be helped. On the other hand, if the violence seems to come from the left or from illegal aliens carrying signs like "Make America Mexico Again" (as was seen recently), it will help Trump. It won't get him more Hispanic votes, but it will swing a great many others away from Hillary.
The fifth item is how well things are going with Russia, China, Libya, Syria and other world problem areas. Anywhere that has Hillary's fingerprints on them that go in a bad direction will be a problem for Hillary. Anything that goes well will be claimed by Obama.
The last item is mistakes by the candidates. Trump frequently says outrageous things or takes positions that the media and the pundits hate. That won't be enough to derail him. If he makes a truly boneheaded mistake, however, it could be disastrous for him. Similarly, if Hillary does something like explain again how she and Bill were flat broke when they left the White House, it may destroy her candidacy. My guess is that by now, both candidates have made it to the point beyond which they are past such mistakes.
And the last item is the FBI. It's a lose-lose for Hillary. If she gets indicted or even recommended for indictment, it's all over for her. On the other hand, if she isn't indicted, then there will undoubtedly be "leaks" that explain that Obama demanded that she get special privileges from the FBI.
There are other things that will affect the results, but if you know how the six above turn out, it will be pretty clear who will win.
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