The latest polls of Trump against Clinton show a close race. Just a few weeks ago, Clinton was well ahead, but now things have tightened and Trump has pulled ahead in some places. But here's the key: it doesn't matter who is ahead now. The important thing is that in nearly every poll, only between 80 and 83 percent of the voters choose either Clinton or Trump. That means that there are just under twenty percent of the voters who either cannot decide or who want someone else. Those are the voters who will select the next president.
What does it mean to have so many voters at this point who cannot select either Trump or Clinton? Think about it. Essentially everyone in the country knows Hillary, but nearly everyone also knows Trump. All the attack lines from the campaign so far have permeated through the electorate, and yet we still have this huge undecided group. These people have heard the charges that Trump is a racist, xenophobic, nasty man with psychological problems. It's hard to have missed those claims if you live in the USA. Even after that major onslaught against Trump, he's still tied with Hillary. Anyone for whom those charges would really prevent a vote for Trump has already been so affected. On the other hand, while most Americans know Hillary, they haven't heard most of the attacks on her. Sanders has refrained from negative campaigns and the GOP has yet to really unload on her. It may well be that as the campaign unfolds and the real Hillary is exposed, there will be more of an effect than Hillary herself can muster from her attacks on Trump.
Obviously, events between now and election day will play an enormous role in who wins the election. If the economy continues to sag, Trump will likely win. On the other hand, if we get a surprising economic boom, Hillary will have to be favored. If either candidate makes a major mistake, that too could change the dynamic of the race. Still, if things continue on the current trajectory, it's not looking that good for Hillary.
What does it mean to have so many voters at this point who cannot select either Trump or Clinton? Think about it. Essentially everyone in the country knows Hillary, but nearly everyone also knows Trump. All the attack lines from the campaign so far have permeated through the electorate, and yet we still have this huge undecided group. These people have heard the charges that Trump is a racist, xenophobic, nasty man with psychological problems. It's hard to have missed those claims if you live in the USA. Even after that major onslaught against Trump, he's still tied with Hillary. Anyone for whom those charges would really prevent a vote for Trump has already been so affected. On the other hand, while most Americans know Hillary, they haven't heard most of the attacks on her. Sanders has refrained from negative campaigns and the GOP has yet to really unload on her. It may well be that as the campaign unfolds and the real Hillary is exposed, there will be more of an effect than Hillary herself can muster from her attacks on Trump.
Obviously, events between now and election day will play an enormous role in who wins the election. If the economy continues to sag, Trump will likely win. On the other hand, if we get a surprising economic boom, Hillary will have to be favored. If either candidate makes a major mistake, that too could change the dynamic of the race. Still, if things continue on the current trajectory, it's not looking that good for Hillary.
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