Yesterday, the National Rifle Association endorsed Donald Trump for president at their national convention. It is by far the earliest endorsement that group has ever given. I saw a bunch of delegates discussing the endorsement on various shows. It was clear that some of them weren't strong supporters of Trump, but each one was a strident opponent of Hillary Clinton. That really ought to worry the Clintonites.
Today, Hillary Clinton is going to speak at a gun control event to emphasize her support for limiting gun rights. No doubt there will be a sizeable crowd, and there will be much applause. But here's the big question: in November, how many Americans will vote for Hillary based upon her support for gun control? And how many Americans will vote for Trump based upon his support for gun rights? In other words, just how important is the gun issue compared to something like the economy or terrorism?
The answer to this question should give Clinton great cause for concern. There are some gun issues on which a majority of the public tells pollsters that they agree with the gun control crowd. Specifically, stricter background checks on gun buyers is supported by large majorities. The problem for Clinton, however, is that very small numbers of voters put this issue near the top of their priorities. For the most part, those for whom the support of gun control is key are already strong Democrat voters who support Hillary. On the other hand, there are a great many more people for whom gun rights is an important issue. Barack Obama may have called these people bitter clingers (who cling to their guns, etc.), but that's not too far from reality. There are millions of people for whom keeping gun rights is critical. And here's the key: a chunk of those supporters of gun rights might otherwise vote Democrat, but they just won't because of this issue.
The gun issue is strong enough that it could swing a close election in an important state like Pennsylvania or Ohio where there are large numbers of hunters who worry about Hillary confiscating their guns. Given the strength of this issue, my prediction is that before the election in November, we will be hearing Hillary Clinton softening her anti-gun positions. It's too late though.
Today, Hillary Clinton is going to speak at a gun control event to emphasize her support for limiting gun rights. No doubt there will be a sizeable crowd, and there will be much applause. But here's the big question: in November, how many Americans will vote for Hillary based upon her support for gun control? And how many Americans will vote for Trump based upon his support for gun rights? In other words, just how important is the gun issue compared to something like the economy or terrorism?
The answer to this question should give Clinton great cause for concern. There are some gun issues on which a majority of the public tells pollsters that they agree with the gun control crowd. Specifically, stricter background checks on gun buyers is supported by large majorities. The problem for Clinton, however, is that very small numbers of voters put this issue near the top of their priorities. For the most part, those for whom the support of gun control is key are already strong Democrat voters who support Hillary. On the other hand, there are a great many more people for whom gun rights is an important issue. Barack Obama may have called these people bitter clingers (who cling to their guns, etc.), but that's not too far from reality. There are millions of people for whom keeping gun rights is critical. And here's the key: a chunk of those supporters of gun rights might otherwise vote Democrat, but they just won't because of this issue.
The gun issue is strong enough that it could swing a close election in an important state like Pennsylvania or Ohio where there are large numbers of hunters who worry about Hillary confiscating their guns. Given the strength of this issue, my prediction is that before the election in November, we will be hearing Hillary Clinton softening her anti-gun positions. It's too late though.
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