I was struck this morning by the topsy turvy world of American politics, especially in the last month. It made me think of New York City mayor James J Walker. Gentleman Jimmy, as Walker was known, headed the city during Prohibition. He was bounced from office after he lost his bid for re-election to Fiorello LaGuardia (yes, that's the man for whom the airport is named). Decades later they produced a Broadway musical about LaGuardia and it included a song about Gentleman Jimmy. The song had one key line: "Will they love you in November as they do in May?" In many ways, that summarizes our current political landscape.
Right now, it's fair to say that neither of the almost certain nominees of the two parties are loved. No one loves Hillary Clinton except for possible Chelsea. (I think it's safe to rule out Bill based upon years of observation.) On top of that, Clinton is viewed by more than two thirds of Americans as dishonest and untrustworthy and her favorabilility numbers are likewise far under water. On the other side, there are those who strongly like Donald Trump, but the polls say that there are more people who don't like him. So to twist the song line, will the electorate like either candidate better in November than they do in May?
The future trend for Clinton seems rather clear. Her favorability numbers have been sinking for over a year. Prior to announcing her candidacy, Hillary was viewed favorably by roughly two thirds of the American people. Over the last year and a half, that number has consistently declined so that it's now roughly two thirds unfavorable and one-third favorable. In a match up against Trump, Clinton even gets votes from people who nevertheless view her unfavorably. Still, the trend is clear; the more people see Hillary, the less they like her. Now we have the added burden of the Inspector General's report on her email system. The IG's report exposed clearly that Hillary and her team have been blatantly telling lies while trying to justify what she did while Secretary of State. Clinton said repeatedly that everything she did was "allowed". The IG report demonstrates that Clinton's claim was false all along. What Hillary did was not "allowed"; the IG makes clear what she did was not even "legal". Hillary also claimed repeatedly that she did nothing more than what her predecessors had done. Again, the IG report makes clear that this is not the case. Earlier secretaries of state were not perfect, but comparing their email missteps with Hillary's is like comparing j-walking to murder; both are wrong, but only one is serious.
Then you have to add in the ever more strident attacks from Bernie Sanders. Bernie and his followers are angry; that is clear. Bernie thinks (and rightly so) that the whole primary battle was rigged in favor of Hillary. He is making moves that could easily blow up the national convention in Philadelphia. His latest move is to ask that certain Clinton delegates get removed from convention committees because they are supposedly too strident (he calls them "attack dogs".) It's an interesting ploy. If the Clinton delegates are removed, then Hillary looks weak by kowtowing to Bernie. If the Clinton delegates stay, then Bernie keeps talking about how the system is rigged. Ultimately, Hillary will win the nomination, but this battle with Bernie is going to leave her with millions of Bernie supporters who -- to put it mildly -- hate her.
Put all this together and Hillary's trajectory does not look good. (And that ignores what the FBI may do with the possible indictment.)
On the other side is Trump. His trajectory is much less clear. Trump has seen big moves in his favorability numbers over time. The difference between Trump's numbers and Hillary's, however, is that Trump has seen rises in favorability as well as falls. In the last month, Trump has risen substantially in most poll categories. There's still a great deal that will affect Trump, however.
First, we will have to see if Trump can avoid a real split in his party. At the moment, he's looking good on that score. Sure, we have big names in the party like Jeb Bush who say that they are not going to vote for Trump. The problem Bush faces, however, is that he offers no reason for his action that will resonate with voters. Other Republicans with much bigger names (like George H.W.Bush, George W. Bush and Mitt Romney) are not coming to the convention in Cleveland, but only Romney has hinted at active opposition to Trump in the election. The #NeverTrump movement has all but disintegrated. Right now, it's down to Bill Kristol and four people who meet every other Tuesday at a Denny's outside of Washington (or at least so it seems.) Once Speaker Ryan gives his inevitable endorsement of Trump, the plan by the establishment remnants to resist Trump will be over.
Next we will have to see if Trump can overcome some of his negatives. Trump doesn't have to stop being himself (as if he could), but he should refrain from gratuitous attacks on those who ought to be allies. It will be interesting to see just how the GOP convention gets set up and how the campaign goes after that. We know exactly what we will get from Hillary Clinton; Donald Trump, on the other hand, is a complete question mark. If Trump can pull off an extravaganza, he could raise his numbers substantially. Believe it or not, there are still millions of Americans who only know Trump from what others say about him rather than from what Trump himself does or says. Trump has the ability to win over millions of voters; we will have to wait and see if he uses that ability.
All of this is a long way of saying that the election season still has a long way to go. Still, if one had to bet right now, the smart money ought to be on Trump. More precisely, the smart money ought to be on Hillary losing.
Right now, it's fair to say that neither of the almost certain nominees of the two parties are loved. No one loves Hillary Clinton except for possible Chelsea. (I think it's safe to rule out Bill based upon years of observation.) On top of that, Clinton is viewed by more than two thirds of Americans as dishonest and untrustworthy and her favorabilility numbers are likewise far under water. On the other side, there are those who strongly like Donald Trump, but the polls say that there are more people who don't like him. So to twist the song line, will the electorate like either candidate better in November than they do in May?
The future trend for Clinton seems rather clear. Her favorability numbers have been sinking for over a year. Prior to announcing her candidacy, Hillary was viewed favorably by roughly two thirds of the American people. Over the last year and a half, that number has consistently declined so that it's now roughly two thirds unfavorable and one-third favorable. In a match up against Trump, Clinton even gets votes from people who nevertheless view her unfavorably. Still, the trend is clear; the more people see Hillary, the less they like her. Now we have the added burden of the Inspector General's report on her email system. The IG's report exposed clearly that Hillary and her team have been blatantly telling lies while trying to justify what she did while Secretary of State. Clinton said repeatedly that everything she did was "allowed". The IG report demonstrates that Clinton's claim was false all along. What Hillary did was not "allowed"; the IG makes clear what she did was not even "legal". Hillary also claimed repeatedly that she did nothing more than what her predecessors had done. Again, the IG report makes clear that this is not the case. Earlier secretaries of state were not perfect, but comparing their email missteps with Hillary's is like comparing j-walking to murder; both are wrong, but only one is serious.
Then you have to add in the ever more strident attacks from Bernie Sanders. Bernie and his followers are angry; that is clear. Bernie thinks (and rightly so) that the whole primary battle was rigged in favor of Hillary. He is making moves that could easily blow up the national convention in Philadelphia. His latest move is to ask that certain Clinton delegates get removed from convention committees because they are supposedly too strident (he calls them "attack dogs".) It's an interesting ploy. If the Clinton delegates are removed, then Hillary looks weak by kowtowing to Bernie. If the Clinton delegates stay, then Bernie keeps talking about how the system is rigged. Ultimately, Hillary will win the nomination, but this battle with Bernie is going to leave her with millions of Bernie supporters who -- to put it mildly -- hate her.
Put all this together and Hillary's trajectory does not look good. (And that ignores what the FBI may do with the possible indictment.)
On the other side is Trump. His trajectory is much less clear. Trump has seen big moves in his favorability numbers over time. The difference between Trump's numbers and Hillary's, however, is that Trump has seen rises in favorability as well as falls. In the last month, Trump has risen substantially in most poll categories. There's still a great deal that will affect Trump, however.
First, we will have to see if Trump can avoid a real split in his party. At the moment, he's looking good on that score. Sure, we have big names in the party like Jeb Bush who say that they are not going to vote for Trump. The problem Bush faces, however, is that he offers no reason for his action that will resonate with voters. Other Republicans with much bigger names (like George H.W.Bush, George W. Bush and Mitt Romney) are not coming to the convention in Cleveland, but only Romney has hinted at active opposition to Trump in the election. The #NeverTrump movement has all but disintegrated. Right now, it's down to Bill Kristol and four people who meet every other Tuesday at a Denny's outside of Washington (or at least so it seems.) Once Speaker Ryan gives his inevitable endorsement of Trump, the plan by the establishment remnants to resist Trump will be over.
Next we will have to see if Trump can overcome some of his negatives. Trump doesn't have to stop being himself (as if he could), but he should refrain from gratuitous attacks on those who ought to be allies. It will be interesting to see just how the GOP convention gets set up and how the campaign goes after that. We know exactly what we will get from Hillary Clinton; Donald Trump, on the other hand, is a complete question mark. If Trump can pull off an extravaganza, he could raise his numbers substantially. Believe it or not, there are still millions of Americans who only know Trump from what others say about him rather than from what Trump himself does or says. Trump has the ability to win over millions of voters; we will have to wait and see if he uses that ability.
All of this is a long way of saying that the election season still has a long way to go. Still, if one had to bet right now, the smart money ought to be on Trump. More precisely, the smart money ought to be on Hillary losing.
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